中国种植业碳汇盈余动态变化及地区差异分析——基于31个省(市、区)2000—2012年的面板数据

在科学测算31个省(市、区)2000—2012年种植业碳汇盈余量的基础上,利用基尼系数系统考察了其地区差距及动态演变特征。研究结论揭示:1)中国种植业碳汇盈余量呈现较为明显的空间差异性。基于总量变化趋势的不同可将31个地区划分为"持续增长型"、"波动增长型"、"波动下降型"与"持续下降型"等4类地区。16个地区种植业碳汇水平得到提升但增幅差异较大;余下15个地区则处于下降态势。2)基尼系数测算结果表明,中国种植业碳汇盈余的地区差距在样本考察期内虽存在一定的年际起伏,但总体处于逐步扩大趋势。从三大区域来看,东部地区差距变化幅度居中,经历了差距缩小期、波动扩大期和波动平稳期等变化阶段;中部地区差距变化幅度最大,其绝对差距也高于东、西部地区,经历了差距持续扩大期、波动平稳期、波动缩小期与小幅扩大期等变化阶段;西部地区差距变化幅度最小,经历了"扩大"与"缩小"的循环演变。

Research on Dynamic Change and Regional Differences of China’s Planting Industry Carbon Sink Surplus

The study is on the regional differences and evolution of China’s planting industry carbon sink surplus. Based on the scientific measurement of planting industry carbon sinks surplus in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2012, this article systematically investigates the regional differences and evolution of the carbon sink surplus in planting industry with the indicator of carbon sink surplus level and Gini coefficient. The results show that: 1) China’s carbon sinks surplus in planting industry is spatially unbalanced. According to the trends of carbon sink surplus, 31 regions can be divided into four types: “continuously increase”, “fluctuantly increase”, “fluctuantly decrease” and “continuously decrease”. Among them, Heilongjiang has the biggest increase which is up to 118.10%, followed by Inner Mongolia and Jilin; Zhejiang has the largest decline which is 49.72%, followed by Shanghai and Fujian. Compared with 2000, there are 16 regions have great improvements in the planting industry carbon sinks levels, while the remaining 15 regions have declines. 2) The calculated results of Gini coefficient show that the regional differences of plant industry carbon sinks surplus are generally enlarging during the inspected period, although there are fluctuations between different years. From the perspective three regions of China, the regional gaps in eastern China are moderate which have experienced the narrowing period, the fluctuantly expanding period and the fluctuantly stable period; the regional gaps in middle regions are the maximum and its absolute value is the highest, and they have experienced the rapidly expanding period, the fluctuantly stationary stable period, the fluctuantly narrowing period and the slightly expanding period; the regional gaps in western regions are the minimum and have alternately experienced the periods of “expanding” and “narrowing”.