泛长江三角洲城市旅游绩效空间格局演变及其影响因素

城市旅游绩效是综合衡量城市旅游业生产活动过程和效果的重要手段。论文基于旅游发展规模和质量视角,利用旅游业绩指数和Bootstrap-DEA测算泛长江三角洲城市旅游绩效,并采用空间变差函数和SDM探讨城市旅游绩效的格局演变及其影响因素。结果表明:1)区域城市旅游业绩和效率呈现相异的空间格局,城市旅游业绩高值区分布于上海、杭州和南京等中心城市及其邻近地区,低值区多位于皖北和苏北地区;城市旅游效率高值区逐渐呈现"皖北—苏南—上海—皖南—浙东"的"Z"字形分布,低值区不断向苏中、苏北和皖中地区集聚。2)区域城市旅游业绩和效率格局的演变过程存在明显差异,城市旅游业绩格局发生变异的随机成分不断降低,而旅游效率格局的结构化变异逐渐增大;城市旅游业绩的空间差异在不断缩小,各方向上的差异较为稳定,而旅游效率格局的空间差异先减小后增大,各方向上的差异切换频繁。3)区域城市旅游绩效的格局演变与城市经济发展、产业结构、交通条件、信息技术、市场化和城市化等多种因素有关,各影响因素及其空间效应强度的差异引致区域城市旅游业绩和效率格局呈现不同的演变轨迹。

Spatial Pattern Evolution of Urban Tourism Performance and Its Influence Factors in Pan-Yangtze River Delta

Urban tourism performance is an important guideline for comprehensive measurement of urban tourism production activities and benefits. Taking the prefecture-level cities as the study units, this paper measures the tourism performance of Pan-Yangtze River Delta. Adopting urban tourism achievement index and Bootstrap-DEA model, with the help of the spatial variogram function and the Spatial Durbin Model, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern evolution of tourism performance and its influence mechanism. The main conclusions are shown as follows. Firstly, the urban tourism achievement and the urban tourism efficiency exhibit distinct spatial patterns. The areas of high urban tourism achievement are mainly the regional centers, such as the cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing and their neighboring regions, while the areas of low urban tourism achievement locate in northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu. The areas of high urban tourism efficiency gradually form a “Z”-shaped spatial distribution, which is composed of the “northern Anhui-southern Jiangsu-Shanghai-southern Anhui-eastern Zhejiang”, and the areas of low urban tourism efficiency are gradually gathering at northern Jiangsu and northern Anhui. Secondly, according to the levels of urban tourism achievement and urban tourism efficiency, the cities in Pan-Yangtze River Delta can be divided into four types, namely highest-level tourism performance, higher-level tourism performance, lower-level tourism performance and lowest-level tourism performance. The numbers of cities at the highest level and higher level obviously increased, and these cities concentrate at Shanghai, Zhejiang, southern Jiangsu, and southern Anhui. The spatial distribution of the lowest-level of tourism performance gradually narrowed down, which mainly concentrated in the central and northern Jiangsu and northern Anhui. Thirdly, the evolutions of spatial patterns of urban tourism achievement and urban tourism efficiency are significantly different. The random components of the variation of urban tourism achievement pattern are constantly reducing, while the structured components of the variation of urban tourism efficiency pattern are constantly growing. The spatial difference of regional urban tourism achievement is shrinking and the variation is isotropic. The spatial difference of urban tourism efficiency increased first and then decreased, and the variation is anisotropic. Lastly, the spatial pattern evolution of urban tourism performance not only depends on the change of tourism production, but also relies on urban macro environment. Various factors of urban macro environment, such as urban economic development, industrial structure, traffic condition, information technology, market-oriented and urbanization, and their spatial interaction, constitute the power of spatial pattern evolution of urban tourism performance.