中国老工业城市的发展状态评价及衰退机制

近150 a以来,中国工业建设培育、塑造了大量的工业基地或工业城市,但在改革开放后的市场经济过程中,呈现出不同的发展态势,部分老工业城市明显衰退并逐步成为问题区域。论文在界定老工业城市概念的基础上,设计了由核心指标和辅助指标组成的评价体系,采用1985年数据,对我国老工业城市进行识别和筛选,认为全国共有100个老工业城市,分析了其空间格局和基本特征。然后,以1985—1986年和2008—2009年为时间点,根据工业产值和GDP比重两个指标,通过两维象限方法对我国老工业城市的工业地位和城市发展效益变化进行了对比研究,对其发展状态进行评价和分析,将其分为4类城市,认为我国有46个衰退滞后型老工业城市。然后,从发展路径、重大项目、产业结构、企业和体制等角度,深入揭示了衰退滞后型老工业城市的发展机制。

Developing Level of Old Industrial Cities and Decline Mechanism

Since the mid 18th century, the continuous construction and development of China’s industry had fostered many industrial bases or industrial cities. During the developing process of market economic since the 1980s, China’s industrial cities showed different trends, many old industrial cities declined obviously and became the problem regions. In this paper, based on the elaboration of the conception of old industrial city, we design the major indexes and auxiliary index, and apply the data in 1985 to identify and discuss the spatial pattern. The result shows that China has 100 old industrial cities and they concentrate mainly in the regions of "Nuruer Tiger Mountain→the Great Wall→the Yellow River→Funiu Mountain→Daba Mountains, Wuling Mountain→the Yangtze River". Then, the quadrant model and the ratio of industrial value and GDP in 1985－1986 and 2008－2009 are applied to analyze the industrial role and comprehensive urban benefit, and estimate their developing status. The results show the old industrial cities are divided into four types, the increasing-developing type includes 23 cities, the decreasing-developing cities reach 26, and 46 cities declined obviously with backward urban economic development, but only 5 cities belong to the increasing-lagged type. Meanwhile, we probe the declining mechanism of old industrial cities from the viewpoints of super-large industrial projects, industrial structure, national enterprises and institutions. These cities have close relationship with 156 super-large projects under USSR’s help, 2ed Five-Year Plan and "Three Lines" construction, these projects chiefly developed resources exploitation, raw material and equipment manufacturing industries. Another important factor is that these old industrial cities are locked in the specific industrial technology, equipment and production, and have the low capacity to innovate. Furthermore, the predominance of super-large national enterprises determines they are locked in the planned-economic institution and have the low adaptable ability to the market economy.