城市碳排放的评估方法——影响要素和过程研究

城市碳排放对全球碳循环和气候变化产生了深远的影响。论文在国内外城市碳排放研究基础上,从城市化的碳排放效应、城市碳排放估算和影响要素、碳排放观测、碳循环和碳代谢过程等方面系统归纳总结了碳排放评估方法、要素和过程。评述了Kaya恒等式、LMDI方法、CGE模型、混合分析法、清单编制法、UE模型、FFDAS模型、STIRPAT模型、格网模型、综合分析法(Four-part Methodology)、建筑碳排放模型、物质代谢法、EC碳通量观测等代表性碳排放估算和观测方法。研究焦点正在从宏观模式转向微观机理,从自然、人文单一过程转向人文-自然耦合过程,热点区域从发达国家城市转向发展中国家城市,从单一数据源转向遥感、实验观测等多源数据。基于上述特点,当前研究应从城市公平发展和低碳城市出发,建立城市公共利益能源研究框架,根据城市职能类型和发展水平,综合涡度通量观测、计量模型、生态模型、遥感和GIS技术,构建高精度城市碳排放账户,建立城市代谢存量和流量标准分类系统,发展和完善碳排放估算模型,提高城市碳排放计算结果精度和城市间的可比性。

A Review of Assessment Methods,Influencing Factors and Process on Urban Carbon Emissions

Urban carbon emissions had profound impact on the global carbon cycle and climate change. This paper, based on the studies of urban carbon emissions home and abroad, systematically concludes methods, factors and process of carbon emissions from the aspects of carbon emission effect of urbanization, estimation and impact factors of urban carbon emissions, observation of carbon emissions, carbon cycle and carbon metabolism. Furthermore, we reviewed representative methods with respect to the estimation and observation of carbon emissions such as Kaya identity, LMDI method, CGE model, mixture analysis method, inventory method, UE model, FFDAS model, STIRPAT model, GRID model, Four-part Methodology, building carbon emission model, substance metabolism law and EC carbon flux observation. Research focus is shifting from the macro mode to the microscopic mechanism and from single process of humanities or nature to cultural and natural coupling process. Research hot spot areas have turned to cities of developing countries from ones of developed countries. Data sources have shifted to remote sensing, experimental observation of multi-source data from single data source. Because of the above characteristics, future studies should be based on urban equitable development and low-carbon cities, and build up urban public interest energy research framework. According to function and development level of each city, it is necessary to synthesize vertical flux measurement, econometric model, ecological model, remote sensing and GIS, establish high-precision urban carbon emissions account, construct urban standard classification system of metabolism stock and flow, develop and improve carbon emissions estimation model, increase the results accuracy of urban carbon emissions and correspondingly, the comparability between cities.