黄河径流序列标度不变性分析及趋势预测研究

长期以来，影响黄河干流梯级电站可持续发展的因素，除了关键技术因素、经济因素和环境因素，还有对未来径流趋势的认知不足。可见研究黄河干流径流变化趋势，对于黄河干流梯级电站可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。论文利用非趋势的波动分析法，对黄河干流贵德、头道拐和花园口3个水文站径流的标度不变性和未来变化趋势进行了分析和预测。结果显示，3个水文站的径流量将会减少，这将对黄河干流梯级电站可持续发展不利。

Scale Invariant Analysis and Runoff Trend Prediction of the Runoff Time Series in the Yellow River

Over a long period of time,the factors that have affected cascade reservoirs sustainable development of the main stream of the Yellow River, except key technology and economic and environmental factors,insufficient cognition of the future runoff tendency is also attributes to this. It is practical meaning to study runoff change trend for the cascade reservoirs sustainable development in the Yellow River main stream.Detrended fluctuation analysis method is adopted to scale invarianc analysis and predict future runoff change trend of the three hydrologic stations,which are Guide station,Toudaoguai station and Huayuankou station of the main stream of the Yellow River.Results show that runoff will decrease at three hydrologic stations.It is disadvantageous for the cascade reservoirs sustainable development on the main stream of the Yellow River.