1949～1992年我国粮食单产的气候影响分析

１９４９～１９９２年我国粮食单产呈持续增长趋势,但年际间有明显的波动。这种波动除受政策因素影响外,主要受气候波动的影响,尤其是单产水平的剧降往往与气候灾害比较严重的年景对应。为此,本文着重分析了气候产量的时空变化特征。结果表明,东部地区单产水平虽然很高,同时波动幅度也很大,应以稳产为主,中、西部地区以增产为主。从全国来看,气候产量变化的一致性特征明显,５０年代和８０年代气候条件对粮食生产比较有利。但个别年份气候产量变化会呈现出南北或东西方向的地域分异特征。

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE ON GRAIN OUTPUT PER UNIT AREAIN CHINA DURING THE YEARS OF 1949～1992

he grain yield per unit area sown in China has been increasing from 1949 to 1992, with an annual fluctuation which, besides some policy influences, was mainly resulted from the annually climatic variations, because of the monsoon climate characterized by annually considerable variation mainly in the temperature and rainfall and various na tural disasters such as floods and draughtThe law of temporal and spatial variation of climatic yield which is determined by the three natural factors including light,temperature and precipitation, was analyzed in this paper. It showed that the years with lower grain output per unit area are identified with the years of severe natural disasters. The per unit area yield of grain in the eastern China is higher and more fluctuating than that in the western region. Stabilizing the grain yield in the east and increasing the grain output in the west are of the major options in terms of strategy. The result of EOF analysis indicated that regional unanimity of climatic yield variation is a main spatial pattern besides the other spatial patterns of north south difference and east west variation in some years. From the temporal point of view, the climates in 1950's and 1980's are good for the grain production.