西北干旱地区枯水径流的自回归相关初步分析

随着经济的发展,水资源的重要性日益被人们所认识。当前,不仅要求对年径流量及其随时间的变化规律作深入地研究,而且对洪枯水的研究也已经提到日程上来。在我国,洪水的研究有较长的历史,特别是历史洪水资料的分析研究,已经取得较多的成果。但对枯水径流的研究则较薄弱,为此,我们应用自回归相关分析的方法对我国西北干旱地区的枯水径流进行了初步分析。西北干旱地区正待开发,而水资源是主要的制约因素。在水

THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE AUTO-REGRESSION CORRELATION COEFFICIENT OF DRY-SEASON RUNOFF IN ARID REGION, NORTHWESTERN CHINA

In this paper the autoregression correlation coefficient method is adopted to analyze the characteristics of the dry-season runoff of the rivers in the arid region of north western China. The paper first described the physical geographic elements affecting the dry-season runoff, and it is known that climatic elements and hydrological states are main ones which affect the dry-season runoff. The data used 10 calculate autoregression correlation coefficient from first step to tenth step are minimum monthly mean runoff and year minimum runof of the thirty representative stations in the north-west arid region. By analyzing the coefficients, the coefficients may be divided into three types, the first type is with low coefficients to any value of τ, the second with high coefficient ar T = l or 2 and the low values as τ>3, the third with the high values to any value of τ. However the type of the dry season runoff in the north-west arid region all belong to the first and second type, especially the first type. The autoregression model predicting and estimating the dry season runoff can be developed on the basis of the calculation and analysis of autoregression correlation coefficient.