高速铁路对国内民航旅客运输的替代效应测度

中国高速铁路的快速建设,对国内民航客运的发展产生了较大的影响。基于事后分析视角,从直达联系视角建立了国内高铁—民航运输的空间叠合网络,定量分析了高铁建设前后民航旅客运输的变化特征,并基于航空客流增速变化识别出高铁影响下的四种航段类型及其空间分布。在此基础上,基于2007-2014年全国277对高铁—民航运输重叠城市对的8年面板数据,以航空客流为因变量,建立随机效应模型,研究了高速铁路介入后对国内民航客运系统、北上广枢纽机场以及其他机场航线的替代效应。结论表明：（1）高速铁路对重叠网络的民航旅客运输产生了较强的替代效应,且高铁列车速度越快、城市间距离越短,替代效应越明显。（2）由于航班网络联系的多元化、旅客出行偏好选择以及对时间敏感性不同,枢纽机场航线较非枢纽机场航线受高铁建设的影响相对较小。未来随着高铁网络的进一步完善,其对航空客运的影响仍值得持续关注。

Impacts of high-speed rail on China's domestic air transportation

The construction of high-speed rail in China improves the comprehensive transportation systems significantly, while challenging the development of domestic air transportation at the same time. Based on the timetable data from 2007 to 2014, the overlapping market of HSR and air network is identified from the perspective of direct connection between city pairs. In 2007, the overlappping network only had 21 city pairs with direct flights and high-speed trains, and the number dramatically increased to 277 in 2014. This paper first analyzes the potential influence of HSR development on airlines and its spatial distribution. Then, a random effect regression model is established to measure the ex-post effects of the entry of HSR on air passenger flows of all the 277 city-pairs, among which, 94 city-pairs connected with the three hub cities, and 183 city-pairs connected with other feeder airports in China. The results are as follows: (1) Despite the fact that HSR and air transportation systems in China are developing in parallel, the entry of HSR has caused a modal shift from air transportation. The reduction on air travel demand caused by G trains is more obvious than that of D trains. (2) The air travel demand between inter-cities within the same or nearby provinces decreases sharply. (3) Distance, GDP, and rank of airports are significant positive factors in increasing air travel demand. (4) Due to various flight networks, preference for air transport, and sensitivity to travel time in hub cities, city pairs connected with Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou are more competitive for air transportation than for HSR.