西北内陆干旱区水资源承载能力研究

在西北内陆干旱区水资源生产能力分析的基础上,定量地给出了该区域重点地区的水资源承载力。针对生态环境脆弱的内陆干旱区特点,探讨了水资源承载力的主要研究内容、特性和影响它的主要因素,然后提出了水资源承载力的指标体系、计算流程和边界条件,分析计算了其水资源生产能力。研究结果表明,利用新疆、河西、宁夏的农产品弥补关中和柴达木农业生产的不足,利用新疆、关中、柴达木的工业生产弥补河西、宁夏工业生产的不足,2020年西北重点地区完全可以承载其6384×104人的预测人口,且能保证每人有年均400kg粮食和2×104元以上的富裕生活水平。

Study on carrying capacity of water resources in inland arid zone of Northwest China

The carrying capacity of water resources in key areas of the inland arid zone in Northwest China was quantitatively estimated based on the analysis of productivity of water resources.In accordance with the characteristics of the fragile ecological system in the inland arid zone,the main content,characteristics and influencing factors of carrying capacity of water resources were firstly discussed,then the index system,flow chart of calculation and boundary conditions of carrying capacity of water resources were proposed,and finally the productivity of the water resources was analyzed and calculated.The study result indicated that on condition that shortages of farm produce of the central Shaanxi plain and Qaidam Basin are compensated by surplus of farm produce of Xinjiang,Hexi and Ningxia and shortages of industrial products of Hexi and Ningxia are compensated by surplus of industrial products of Xinjiang,the central Shaanxi plain and Qaidam Basin,in the target year2020,an expected population of63.84million can be supported in the key areas of Northwest China,and a wealthy living condition of per capita400kg grain and RMB20000yuan income can be ensured.