1995—2005年中国碳排放核算及其因素分解研究

采用1995—2005年中国各行业的相关统计数据,基于IPCC温室气体清单方法,构建了碳排放核算的项目框架,对中国历年的碳排放进行了核算;并应用因素分解方法对中国历年来碳排放量和碳排放强度及其变化的因素进行了时间序列分析。结论如下:①中国碳排放总量呈先缓慢减少后快速增加的态势,2005年中国碳排放达22.02×108t,比1995年增加了66%,由于林业的碳汇功能,2005年净碳排放量为19.05×108t;②碳排放强度的变化量总体上表现为增长态势,2002年前碳排放强度逐年减小,2002年后碳排放强度变化量转为正值,其中技术进步是碳排放强度变化的主要因素;③GDP增长是碳排放总量增加的主要动力,技术进步因素是碳排放量降低的主导因素;④工业部门对碳排放总量和碳排放强度的变化起决定作用,因此工业部门是实现碳减排的关键。

Research on Carbon Emission Estimation and Factor Decomposition of China from 1995 to 2005

Using statistic data from 1995 to 2005 of China, based on greenhouse gas inventory method of IPCC, this paper established the framework of carbon emission estimation system of China, estimated the carbon emission in China from 1995 to 2005, and analyzed the carbon emission, carbon emission intensity and their changing factors by using factor decomposition model. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The amount of carbon emission of China firstly slowly decreased and then rapidly increased from 1995 to 2005. The total carbon emission in 2005 was 22.02×10⁸ t, which increased 66% than that of 1995, and the carbon absorption in 2005 was 2.97×10⁸ t. So the net carbon emission of China in 2005 was 19.05×10⁸ t, which increased 79% than that of 1995. 2)Carbon emission from energy activity and industrial production were the main carbon source of China, which indicated that traditional energy use especially high energy consumption industry was the main reason caused the increasing of carbon emission since 1995. Therefore, adjusting energy structure, innovating energy technology and advocating clean energy were the key methods to decrease carbon emission intensity. 3) Generally, the changing amount of carbon emission intensity appears increasing trend. Carbon emission intensity before 2002 declined year by year, but the changing amount of carbon emission intensity became positive after 2002. Technological progress was the main factor driving the change of carbon emission intensity. Despite industrial structure adjustment was not the determinative factor, but it should become the leading factor that drives carbon emission reduction in the long run. 4) The main motive power driving the increase of total carbon emission was the increase of GDP, and the technological progress was the main factor caused the decrease of the total carbon emission. 5) Industrial sector basically determined the change of carbon emission intensity and total carbon emission amount, which means that the industrial sector was the key in fulfilling carbon emission reduction. So, adjusting industrial structure on macroscopic and internal industrial aspect is the important way to decrease the total carbon emission, which is also the key point in future low-carbon planning.