海伦地区水热耦合特征及其对大豆产量的影响

农业是受气候变化影响的主要敏感行业之一,气候变暖带来的气温升高以及降水格局的改变对农作物生产有利有弊。论文基于黑龙江海伦地区1978—2004年生长季≥10℃有效积温、降水量和统计年鉴中的大豆产量数据,以积温和降水在季节上的匹配程度作为判断水热耦合的指标,采用气候波动指数、减产风险指数作为大豆产量受气候波动影响程度的指标,研究了在生长季降水量下降和≥10℃有效积温增加的趋势下水热耦合的年际和年内变化特征及其对大豆产量的影响,并分析了偏干旱、正常和湿润年份大豆产量受气候波动影响的特征和减产风险性。结果表明,大豆气候波动指数和产量减产风险指数从大到小均依次为偏干旱年、偏湿润年和正常年,说明海伦地区受气候暖干化影响较大。

The Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Coupling and Its Effect on Soybean Production in Hailun

Agriculture is one of the main sensitive sectors affected by climate change.Warming and precipitation pattern's change have both advantages and disadvantages for crop production.Based on temperature and precipitation data during the growing season from 1978 to 2004,the relationship between the coupling of temperature and precipitation and the yield of soybean in Hailun of Heilongjiang Province was analyzed.Moving average was applied to calculate fluctuation index.Aridity index was used as an indicator of te...