中国农业资源的可持续性分析

本文以农业资源可持续利用的三项基本约束条件为前提,从广义上（时间上的可持续约束、空间上的可持续约束、资源管理上的可持续约束）和狭义上（粮食增长速率和人口增长速率的同调对应）对于中国农业可持续发展与农业资源可持续利用,作了理论上的分析和实际上的计算。并将中同从１９５２～１９９５年划为８个时段,分别作了可持续发展分析并寻求其背景原因,作出了相应的农业可持续发展模型。最后,对于未来中国农业可持续发展的战略提出了基本的监控指标。

THE SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES IN CHINA

Sustainable development of agricultural resources should be satisfied by three basic conditions which are 1. The total amount of food products should supply the requirement of population number at the its "Zero Increase Point", that is to say the food amount per capita in China should keep at 400kg no matter any generation in future; 2. the"consumption"of agricultural resources and its"renewable ability"should keep a relative balance; 3. Spatial homogeneous situation of agricultural conditions should be gradually reached in China. The three restricting conditions are also called to be proceeding restrict, spatial restrict, and management restrict. In the narrow sense, the author uses comparative analysis between food increase rate and population increase rate to illustrate China's sustainable development of agricultural resources from 1950 to 2050. In the conclusions of the paper, five points are listed as following: 1 . upper limit of China's population is 1.6 billion, 2. the time of reached to population"Zero Increase Point"should be at 2040 or 2050; 3. from 1995 to 2040, the increase rate of China's food should keep at 1 .0% or 1.1% per year, 4. from 1995 to 2040, the increase rate of China's population should keep at 0.75% or 0.85% per year; 5. agricultural sustainable development of China is possible if the control index designed are achieved. Our future of agriculture is"prudent optimistic".