北疆250年地表水资源变化特征及未来趋势预测

本文从北疆年轮场重建了北疆２５０年的地表水资源，探讨气候－地表水资源－年轮之间的关系，分析地表水资源的长期变化特征，预测其变化趋势，为北疆地表水资源的研究与利用提供了新的参考依据。

THE VARIATION FEATURES IN 250 YEARS AND TREND PREDICTION IN THE FUTURE OF THE SURFACE WATER RESOURCE OF NORTH XINJIANG

In this paper,we reconstruct the surface water resource of North Xinjiang in 250 years from the tree-ring field in this region,study the relationships among climate,surface water resource and tree-ring,analyze the long-term variation features and predict the variation trend in the futute.The main conclusions obtained are as follows:(a).Reconstructing the surface water resource from the tree-ring field in North Xinjiang has clear physiological significance and the results are believable;(b).The departure variation features of the sequence of the surface water resource of North Xinjiang in 250 years are as follows:the annual surface water is mainly less than its mean before 1840,it is mainly more than its mean from 1841 to 1974 and it is also mainly less than its mean after 1974:(c).There is an undulate increase trend in the surface water resource during 1760-1905 and there is a weaker decrease trend from 1905 to 1994:(d).The maximum departure percentage amplitude of the surface water resource in 250 years is from-29% to +41%;(e).The lengths of the main variation periods of the surface water resource are 2,35,30,14,and 52 years respectively;(f).There is a better correlation between the surface water resource of North Xinjiang and the relative number of sunspot in the periods of 22,11,6 and 2～3 years.