中国人口与资源环境耦合的演进分析

改革开放以来,中国人口和经济快速发展,对资源环境影响强烈。建立评价指标体系,用主成分分析和协调发展度模型研究1985-2004年中国人口与资源环境耦合的演进态势,结果表明:①人口综合发展水平整体不断提高,而在后期稍有回落,1998年其指数达到该时段最大值0.8094,资源环境综合状况波动下降,其指数由1985年的0.5511降至2004年的-0.1479;②人口和资源环境的耦合关系由极度失调趋向初级协调,后又转向中度失调,1994年协调发展度达到该时段最大值0.6379;③1994年,我国人均GDP仅有3923元(当年价),与全面小康标准差距较大,资源环境容量空间有限,可持续发展面临巨大压力;④人口系统与资源环境系统不协同发展贯穿了这一时段,是两者耦合关系变化的直接原因,应选择人口与资源环境良性互动的协调发展模式。

Evolutional Analysis of Coupling between Population and Resource-environment in China

Due to rapid population growth and economic developing since reform and opening to the outside world,resource-environment has been influenced intensively in China,so the man-land contradiction is becoming more and more obvious.Based on the panel and serial statistical data,status of population and resource-environment coupling has been researched by the principal component analysis and the coordinated development degree model in China during 1985-2004.The results are:①On one hand,the comprehensive development capability of population has increased continuously.The maximum integrated population development index reached 0.809 4 in 1998.On the other hand,the comprehensive status of resource-environment has declined with a fluctuant falling trend since 1985,and its integrated index has decreased from 0.551 1 to-0.147 9.Population development is at the cost of unsustainable utilization of resource-environment.②The relationship of population and resource-environment coupling varies gradually from awful maladjustment to elementary harmony,and then to secondary maladjustment.The maximum coordinated development degree came up to 0.637 9 in 1994.The direct cause of variation of coupling relationship is that population system and resource-environment system didn't continuously cooperate with each other from 1985 to 2004.③The carrying capability of resource-environment is limited while demands of human being are increasingly expanding,so sustainable development faces huge pressure in China.It is difficult to achieve the goal of ensuring our people a relative comfortable life since China's per capita GDP was only 3 923 yuan in 1994.④Suggestions that would make for sustainable development were put forward in this paper,such as controlling population quantity,improving population quality,making progress in technology,strengthening protection to resource-environment,and moderation consumption.The coordinated development mode that makes population and resource-environment interact well should be chosen.