江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析

江苏省近年来随着社会经济的发展,耕地面积急剧减少,土地利用变化和经济增长二者关系更为明显和完整,具有极好的典型性和代表性。论文利用近20年来耕地面积、经济增长与城市化水平之间的长序列统计资料,对江苏省1981～2004年间的耕地面积与经济增长及城市化水平的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。研究表明:耕地面积、GDP与城市化水平均是不平稳的时间序列,直接对其进行回归分析是不严谨的;江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间不具有长期的协整性;江苏省耕地面积与GDP、城市化水平之间只存在单向的因果关系。通过研究,认为目前的土地利用方式极不合理。因此,降低耕地减少速度,提高土地利用效率是非常紧迫的战略问题。

Research on the Cointegration and Causality between Jiangsu Province's Arable Area Change and Economic Growth

As one of the Chinese economic swift growth and impacted areas,Jiangsus province’s arable land area has decreased rapidly with social and economic development in recent years.The relation between land use change and economic growth is more obvious and typical throughout the country.This paper reveals the cointegration and causality of arable land area,economic growth and urbanization level from 1981 to 2004 according to the data of long series statistics of arable land area,GDP and urbanization level.The results show that arable land area,GDP and urbanization level are nonsteady time series,hence it is not rigorous to make regression analysis directly to them.There isn’t a long-term cointegration between arable land area change and economic growth.Arable land area’s rapid decrease may be induced by some short-term causation in the exceptional period.So,we can’t think that this trend is reasonable and sustainable later.Economic growth and urbanization level are the causation of arable land area change,but arable land area change isn’t the causation of economic growth and urbanization level.There is one-directional causality between the Jiangsu province’s GDP and arable land area,and arable land area decrease isn’t the causation of economic growth.According to Jiangsu province’s land use data,the arable land area decreased 260.48 thousand ha and 184.73 thousand ha of arable land were converted into construction land from 1996 to 2004.The arable land area that has been converted into construction land occupied 71% of the decreased arable land.This shows that actual land use pattern is reasonless.So,how to slow down the arable land decrease speed by adjusting economic structure,how to use little land as much as possible to sustain economic development by improving land use efficiency and how to perfect land provision system to meet the demand of economic growth are very pressing strategic issues.