和田河年径流变化规律研究

根据和田河实测年径流资料,应用小波分析、R/S分析等多种方法,探讨了在气候变化和人类活动影响下,和田河年径流变化规律及其成因。结果表明,和田河年径流存在减少趋势,且具有一定的持续性。通过径流变化的影响因素分析表明,上游出山口处两支流的径流变化主要受气温升高的影响,下游入塔里木河处除受降水减少的影响外,主要是由于人类对水土资源开发进程的加快,人类活动是其径流变化的主要原因。

Study on the Variation Law of the Annual Runoff in Hotan River

Based on the data of annual runoff of the Hotan River,the impact of climate changes and human activities on the variation law and its genesis were discussed by the wavelet analysis and the R/S analytical method.The result shows that the tendency of the annual runoff is decreasing with persistence to a certaian degree.The analysis of the influencing factors of the annual variation of runoff indicate that the variation of runoff in the mountain pass of the upper reaches is mainly affected by the temperature rise.The variation of runoff in the lower reaches,which afflux the Tarim River,is mainly affected by the human activities except the influence of precipitation decreasing,because of the quickening pace of human exploitation of the water and soil resources.