近35年中国资源环境承载力评价：脉络、热点及展望

在运用CITESPACE、ORIGN、Data-Driven Documents等软件计量统计核心期刊及核心学者的基础上,系统回顾近35年中国资源环境承载力评价研究的发展历程,梳理研究热点,提出研究展望。结果显示：（1）中国资源环境承载力评价遵循“单要素”—“多要素”—“动态集成”评价的轨迹,应用研究沿回答“人口容量”—“区域发展单方面问题”—“区域发展多方面问题”的方向演进;（2）以“科学评价—机理揭示—实际应用”逻辑梳理研究热点,学者们主要运用指标体系法、综合评价法、足迹类等方法测算承载力,并以测算结果为支撑,通过总结承载力时空分布规律、判别影响因子、揭示作用机制,发挥承载力在促进区域经济发展、推进新型城镇化、优化国土空间及监测预警与模拟预测等应用方面的支撑作用;（3）基于以上,提出未来应在学科交叉性、评价指标特异性与先进性、机理揭示深入性、承载力评价动态性等四个研究方向进行优化与深入。

Resource and environmental carrying capacity in China for 35 years:Evolution,hotspots,future trend

Based on statistical core journals and core scholars, this paper uses softwares such as CITESPACE, ORIGN, and Data-Driven Documents, to review the development of research, sort out hotspots and put forward research prospects on resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) assessment in China in the past 35 years. The results show that: (1) The evaluation of RECC in China follows the trajectory of "single factor", "multi-factor" and "dynamic integration", and the applied research evolved from "population capacity", "unilateral problem of regional development (RD)", to "multifaceted problem of RD". (2) According to the logic of "scientific evaluation - mechanism disclosure - practical application", this paper points out that, scholars mainly used the index system method, comprehensive evaluation method, footprint method and other methods to estimate the bearing capacity. Based on the calculation results, scholars summarized the spatial and temporal distribution of carrying capacity, identified the impact factors, and revealed the mechanism, to play a supporting role of carrying capacity in promoting regional economic development, speeding up new urbanization, optimizing territorial space, monitoring, early warning, simulation and prediction. (3) Based on the above, it is suggested that the following four aspects should be further optimized, namely, interdisciplinary research, specificity and advancement of evaluation indicators, depth of mechanism disclosure, and dynamics of carrying capacity evaluation.