经济平稳增长下长江经济带碳排放峰值研究——基于全球夜间灯光数据的视角

碳排放达到峰值的时间和水平,将影响各地区的发展空间,对于长江经济带地区协调发展有着深远的影响,这也是应对气候变化和区域管理需要引起高度重视的问题。为此,论文通过1995—2013年的全球夜间灯光数据对长江经济带的GDP进行了估算和校准,进而在经济平稳增长条件下,预测长江经济带地区2014—2050年的GDP,根据碳强度衰减速率,设置了3种模拟情景。研究表明：以“十二五”时期的碳强度下降速率衰减,江苏和江西地区尚未出现碳峰值,其他地区在2050年之前出现碳峰值;其中云南在2025年就率先达到碳峰值。以“十三五”时期的碳强度下降速率衰减,江苏仍未出现碳峰值,安徽和江西地区在2040年之后出现碳峰值,四川、重庆、贵州均在2031年左右达到碳峰值;云南在2023年就率先达到碳峰值。上述两种模拟情景表明,长江上游地区碳排放达峰的时间要早于长江中游地区。进一步以长江经济带实现“2030年达到碳峰值”为目标的模拟情景发现,各地区碳强度衰减速率的差异显著,这从云南碳强度衰减速率2.58%、江西碳强度衰减速率7.53%,便可窥见一斑。由此可以看出,制定碳减排方案的要义,在协调好碳强度和经济增长率之间有效调控的同时,应充分考虑区域发展不平衡,分区域、分阶段推动碳排放达峰的减排政策,这将有利于经济平稳增长下顺利实现碳峰值目标。

Research on Carbon Emission Peak in Yangtze River Economic Zone with Steady Economic Growth: Based on Data of Global Night-time Light

The time and level of carbon emission peak will affect the development space of regions and have a far-reaching impact on the coordinated development in the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ). This is also a problem to which we need to attach great importance when coping with climate change and regional management. Night-time light has become a typical remote sensing data used to describe the intensity of economic activities. This paper builds the measurement model of night-time light and GDP in the YREZ. According to the estimated results, the fitting precision is high and the GDP can be well explained by the night-time light by the model. This paper estimates and calibrates the GDP in the YREZ with the data of global night-time light from 1995 to 2013, and then predicts the GDP in the YREZ from 2014 to 2050 under the situation of steady economic growth. Three simulation scenarios based on decay rate of carbon intensity are designed to explore the time and level of carbon peak in the YREZ. The result shows that there is no carbon peak in Jiangsu and Jiangxi with the same drop index of carbon intensity as in the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and carbon peak in other regions will appear before 2050. Furthermore, Yunnan will reach the carbon peak in 2025 which is 6.54×10⁷ t. In addition, in the scenario of the drop index of carbon intensity as same as in the “13th Five-Year Plan” period there is no carbon peak in Jiangsu, and the carbon peak in Anhui and Jiangxi will appear after 2040. In the same scenario, the carbon peak in Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou will appear around 2031. Furthermore, Yunnan will reach the carbon peak in 2023. In addition, the above two simulated scenarios both show that the time of carbon emissions peak in upstream area of Yangtze River is earlier than that in the midstream area. It should be pointed out that the decay rate of carbon intensity in Chongqing and Sichuan region reaches 4.30% and that in Guizhou and Yunnan region reaches 3.90%. Moreover, the carbon peak in Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan are 8.17×10⁷, 1.36×10⁸, 1.16×10⁸ and 6.32×10⁷ t, respectively. Therefore, the speed of economic growth is an important factor that affects the carbon peak. In the scenario with the goal of achieving carbon peak in 2030 in the YREZ, there are significant regional differences in the decay rate of carbon intensity. For example, the decay rate of carbon intensity in Yunnan is 2.58% and in Jiangxi is 7.53%. Therefore, regional imbalance in economic development should be taken into full consideration as well as the coordination of carbon intensity and economic growth rate when it comes to formulate carbon reduction plan. Meanwhile, emission reduction policy of achieving carbon peak by regions and by phases should be formulated, which is conducive to the target of achieving carbon peak with steady economic growth.