基于基尼系数的中国灰水足迹区域与结构均衡性分析

论文在对中国大陆31个省市1998-2013年各类来源的灰水足迹进行测算的基础上,选取人口、GDP两个指标,应用基尼系数对中国1998-2013年灰水足迹的空间、结构均衡性情况进行了研究。结果显示：1）在区域均衡性方面,经济灰水足迹均衡性较差,东部与西部地区分别在经济灰水足迹和人口灰水足迹中的均衡性较低;2）在结构均衡性方面,经济灰水足迹均衡性已达到“差距偏大”范围,其中农业和工业的均衡性较差,生活经济灰水足迹均衡性近年来降幅明显;3）从边际效应来看,可以通过减少中、西部重污染地区灰水足迹及各省市农业灰水足迹的方式提升整体均衡性,有效促进中国水环境公平性的提升。最后,针对中国灰水足迹均衡性的具体问题,提出了减少中国灰水足迹、提升水环境公平性的相关建议。

The Regional and Structural Equilibrium Analysis of Grey Water Footprint in China Based on Gini Coefficient

Based on calculating grey water footprint in 31 provinces of China’s mainland from 1997 to 2013, we select the population and GDP as indicators, and use the Gini coefficient to study the spatial and structural equilibrium of the grey water footprint of China during 1998-2013 in this paper. The results suggest that: 1) In terms of regional equilibrium, the economic grey water footprint is worse compared with the population grey water footprint, being close to the warning line (0.4) for a long time, and the proportionality of the eastern regions in the economic grey water footprint is relatively low while the proportionality of the western regions in the population grey water footprint is relatively low. 2) In respect to structural equilibrium, the Gini coefficient of economic grey water footprint has been raised to 0.583 0, that is to say, the proportionality has reached the “big gap” range, and the Gini coefficients of both agriculture and industry are fluctuating in the vicinity of 0.4 in these years, and in the meanwhile the equilibrium of the economic grey water footprint of the life declined significantly in recent years. 3) From the marginal effect point of view, the overall equilibrium can be improved by reducing the grey water footprint of the heavily polluted regions in the central and western regions and the agricultural grey water footprint of each province, and the equity of China’s water environment can be promoted effectively. At last, aiming at the specific problems of the grey water footprint balance in China, we put forward suggestions to reduce the grey water footprint and improve the equity of the water environment in China.