中国森林碳汇的空间溢出效应与影响因素——基于大陆31个省（市、区）森林资源清查数据的空间计量分析

科学估算各地区森林碳汇量并探讨其空间关联性特征是制定差异化碳汇发展政策的重要基础。根据1988—2013年中国大陆31个省（市、区）的6次森林资源清查数据,论文利用森林蓄积量扩展法测算了各地区的森林碳汇量,进而检测和比较了省域间碳汇总量空间关联性的方向和强弱,最后运用空间计量模型分析了碳汇的溢出效应与影响因素。结果表明：1）我国的森林碳汇量整体呈上升态势,各地区间碳汇量差异明显,其中西藏、黑龙江等地区碳汇量丰富,而上海、北京等地则碳汇增长率较快;2）研究期内的Moran’s I指数整体表现为倒“S”型的波动变化特征,全国森林碳汇在省域空间分布上的差异性并不是随机的,而是具备一定关联性;3）我国森林碳汇存在显著的近邻空间溢出效应,森林资源采伐、森林受灾程度和降水量等因素对森林碳汇水平的影响显著。因此,研究认为：我国在发挥森林生态功能时,应当考虑省份间的地理区位因素,合理制定兼具差异化和协调性的森林碳汇发展政策。

Spatial Spillover Effects and Influencing Factors of Forest Carbon Sink in China—Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Forest Resources Inventory in 31 Provinces of the Mainland of China

Estimating the forest carbon sinks and exploring the spatial characteristics of the carbon sinks are important basis for making differential policy of carbon sink. According to forest resources inventory in 31 provinces (cities and districts) of the mainland of China in the years of 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013, the amount of carbon sequestration was calculated and summarized with the method of forest stock volume expansion. The direction and the strength of the spatial correlation of the total amounts of provincial carbon sink were detected and compared, and the spatial econometric model was used to evaluate and analyze the spillover effects of the carbon sink and the factors affecting the carbon sink. The results show that the overall forest carbon sequestration in each area of the country is increasing during 1988-2013. There are regional differences in the amount of carbon sinks, that Tibet, Heilongjiang and other regions are rich in carbon sink, and Beijing and Shanghai have fast growth of carbon sink. The trend of Moran’s I index shows the inverted “S”, suggesting the spatial relevance of provincial forest carbon sequestration. The forest carbon sinks has obvious spatial spillover effect, and it is affected by forest resources logging, forest disaster and precipitation. Based on the results, this paper argues that the development of forest ecological function in China should be taken into consideration of the geographical location, and we should make differential and harmonious policy for the forest carbon sink development in different provinces.