中国水土资源本底匹配状况研究

论文以中国水资源二级区为基本单元,利用单位面积水资源量法和基尼系数法,以二级区水资源总量和潜在可开垦耕地面积为数据基础,评价中国水土资源本底匹配状况,为中国水土资源优化配置提供科学依据。首先根据适宜农作物耕种的高程、坡度和土壤类型条件,得到中国潜在可开垦耕地分布;然后,计算单位潜在可开垦耕地面积水资源量,评价中国水土资源本底匹配分布状况;最后,绘制水土资源洛伦兹曲线,计算基尼系数,对中国水土资源本底匹配总体状况进行评价。研究结果表明： 1）中国北部区域潜在可开垦耕地较多,西南部和南部沿海区域分布较少,未来具有较大耕地开发潜力的区域主要分布在北方; 2）中国本底水资源和潜在可开垦耕地资源空间分布存在严重错位; 3）较之已有研究成果中依据水资源量和耕地面积计算的基尼系数0.566,论文以本底水资源和潜在耕地为基础数据计算的基尼系数0.712要大很多,表征中国本底水土资源不匹配程度要严重得多,中国80%的水资源服务不到23%的潜在可开垦耕地。

Study on the Matching Pattern of Water and Potential Arable Land Resources in China

Most previous studies have focused on the matching pattern of actual arable land and water resources in China. However, due to the lack of valid data about potential arable land resources, the matching pattern of potential arable land and water resources has seldom been investigated. In this paper, based on the potential arable land resources retrieved from remote sensing data, the matching degree of potential arable land resources with water resources in China was evaluated by using two indexes, i.e., water resource per unit area and Gini coefficient. First of all, according to the filter conditions suitable for crop cultivation, the spatial distribution of potential arable land area in China was retrieved from three indexes including DEM, slope and soil type. Then, the water resource per unit area of potential arable land in China were calculated, and the spatial matching degree of the raw water and soil resources in China was evaluated. Finally, we drew the Lorenz curve of water and land resources, calculated the Gini coefficient, and evaluated the overall matching pattern of water resource with potential arable land resource in China. The results showed that: 1) The potential arable land varied greatly in China that the area of potential arable land in northern China was much larger than that in southwestern China and east coastal regions. This indicated that in the future the potential arable land would be mainly located in the northern region. 2) There was a serious mismatching between the water resource and potential arable land resource in China. 3) The matching degree of water resource with potential arable land resource was extremely poor. About 80% of water resource served less than 23% of potential arable land in China. The Gini coefficient of water resource with arable land resource which was 0.712 in the whole country, was much higher than that of agricultural water use with farmland resources, which was 0.566. The matching degree of agricultural water and farmland resource was better than that of potential arable land and water resource, which was the result of human activities. This indicated that the Gini coefficient, calculated by the potential arable land without considering the water resource restriction, was much more suitable for expressing the matching degree of water and land resources. This study can provide scientific basis for us to take effective measures to adapt to the background matching pattern.