基于Esteban-Marquillas拓展模型的中国农业增长的演进特征

论文基于偏离-份额法的Esteban-Marquillas拓展模型,从份额分量、结构分量、净竞争分量和资源配置分量4方面系统研究了1985—2014年间中国农业生产规模及结构的演进特征。结果表明：1）研究期间,中国农业增加值呈现阶段式增长,种植业和牧业是导致农业增长的主要产业,黄淮海区和长江中下游区是全国农业增长的主要区域。2）八大粮食生产区农业产业份额分量均表现出先剧烈波动、后稳步增长的发展态势;各区域产业结构优势总体较弱且进一步下降;净竞争分量变化具有波动性,种植业、渔业促进区域农业总体竞争力的作用增强,林业和牧业的促进作用减弱;种植业和林业改善区域农业资源配置效应的作用增强,牧业和渔业则相对减弱。3）建议各区域结合产业发展优势,制定相关政策加强区域资源整合、农产品流通与技术合作,促进地区农业稳定发展。研究结果可为我国农业生产结构优化及差异化的发展策略制定提供依据。

Spatial Temporal Characteristics of China's Agricultural Growth Based on Esteban-Marquillas Model

Agriculture, as the foundation of the national economy, is of great significance in ensuring food security and maintaining social stability. Under the macro background of the national industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, it will be helpful to promote the healthy development of agriculture in our country by analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of regional agriculture and internal industry in the whole country. Esteban-Marquillas expansion model of shift-share method can not only analyze the regional industrial structure and competitive situation, but also analyze the distribution effect through the interaction of the structure components and the competition components, and it has a stronger explanatory power than traditional model. Thus, based on Esteban-Marquillas expansion model of shift-share method, this research systematically analyzed the evolving characteristics of scale and structure of agricultural production from 1985 to 2014 in China in terms of shares, structure, net competitiveness and resource allocation, attempting to reveal the trend of the total amount and structure of agricultural growth in China since 1985. The results are showed as follows: 1) From 1985 to 2014, the added value of Chinese agriculture increased in stages, mainly resulting from the crop farming and animal husbandry, whose added-value increment accounted for 60% and 24.3% of the total increment, respec-tively. Among the eight major grain producing areas, the middle-lower region of the Yangtze River, Northeast China region and Huang-Huai-Hai region are the main areas driving Chinese agricultural growth, that the total increment value is 155.049 billion yuan and 117.615 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for over 50% of the total increase during the same period. 2) The agricultural shares in the major eight grain production areas presented the trend of steady growth after severe fluctuation during 1985-2014. That is to say, the agricultural shares in eight grain producing areas increased in a fluctuant way during 1985-2007 with 3 growth peaks in 1990, 1993 and 2005, and then the share component of each area turned steady growth after 2007. The overall advantages of industrial structure became weakened and even decreased. When the driving force from crop farming and fishery increased, the driving force from forestry and animal husbandry was weakened. However, when the driving force from crop farming and forestry increased, the driving force from animal husbandry dropped. There was a dynamic balance among the competitive effects. 3) Various regions should work out relevant policies to strengthen the resources integration, agricultural product circulation and technical cooperation according to their industrial development advantages, so as to promote the stable development of regional agriculture. The results can provide the basis for the formulating development strategies to optimize and differentiate the agricultural structures in our country