退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同性研究——以安塞县为例

针对黄土丘陵区退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会协同性研究滞后的现实,在构建退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会协同性表征体系的基础上,通过建立耦合度模型分析了二者的协同性及相关问题,将退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同关系划分为4个阶段：（Ⅰ）协作推进与发展阶段,（Ⅱ）相悖阶段,（Ⅲ）无序失衡阶段,（Ⅳ）抑制发展阶段。其中阶段Ⅲ只是理论结果,在实际政策约束和农户行为的影响下一般不会出现;而阶段Ⅱ和阶段Ⅳ可能会短期出现。以安塞县为例,系统分析了不同阶段协同性演变过程：1995—2014年,安塞县先后经历了相悖阶段和协作推进与发展阶段,目前处于协作推进与发展阶段的下降时期。基于此,需要进一步优化产业结构提高区域内资源的有效利用率,通过林种结构的合理布局,提高退耕林分质量,推进退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统的协同发展。

Study on the Synergic Relationship between Grain for Green and Agricultural Eco-economic Social System—A Case Study in Ansai County

The synergic relationship between Grain for Green (GGP) and agricultural eco-economic social system is an important issue in hilly regions of Loess Plateau, however, there are only a few researches involved in this topic. An indicator was established for revealing this relation in this paper. By selecting indicators of synergic relationship between GGP and agricultural eco-economic social system, a coupling degree model was established for describing the synergic relation. The synergic relation could be divided into four stages: 1) When GGP and agricultural eco-economic social system promote and develop collaboratively, the coupling degree is 0°≤θ<90°. 2) When they are contrary, the coupling degree is 90°≤θ<180°. 3) When they are in disorder, the coupling degree is 180°≤θ<270°. 4) When their development is inhibited, the coupling degree is 270°≤θ≤360°. Stage 3 is generally theoretical results and will not appear under the constraints of policy and influence of farmers’ behaviors, whereas stage 2 and 4 may appear in short term. Taking An’sai County in loess hilly and gully region of Shaanxi Province, China as an example, the synergic process was analyzed. From 1995 to 2014, the comprehensive indices of the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic social system in Ansai County increased significantly, the coupling degree was 33.59°-174.79°. The synergic relationship successively passed through stage 2 and stage 1, and is currently in the decline period of stage 1. It is indicated that Ansai County needs to further optimize its industrial structure in order to improve the effective utilization rate of the resources in this area, improve the quality of forest through rational layout of species structure of forest, and promote the coordinated development of the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic social system. This study laid a foundation for research on the collaboration between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic social system.