中国水资源利用效率俱乐部趋同的检验、测度及解释：2003—2015年

论文基于Quah（1997）的分布动态学分析框架,采用扩展的Markov链和空间Markov链模型对我国大陆31省份2003—2015年间总用水、农业用水及工业用水效率的俱乐部趋同现象展开研究。首先对3类用水效率的俱乐部趋同现象进行检验,随后基于构造的俱乐部趋同指数对俱乐部趋同程度进行测算,最后从空间角度对俱乐部趋同现象进行了解释。研究发现：1）3类用水效率都存在着俱乐部趋同的现象,随着时间的积累,这种现象会有所缓解,但依然明显。例如工业用水效率低水平和高水平地区在5 a后仍分别处于低水平和高水平的概率高达0.808和0.918,可见我国区域水资源利用效率的协调力度亟待加强。2）工业用水效率整体的俱乐部趋同程度最高,其次是总用水效率,农业用水效率最小。我国地区间工业用水效率差异的固化程度最严重,部分地区长期维持在低水平,陷入了“低水平陷阱”,应引起政府的重视。3）水资源利用效率的俱乐部趋同现象受空间因素的影响。一方面,不同用水效率的邻近地区对本地区用水效率的变化存在一定影响,高水平的邻近地区有积极影响,低水平的邻近地区有消极影响;另一方面,高低水平俱乐部的空间分布存在着集聚特征,因此俱乐部内部会产生空间溢出效应。但高水平俱乐部内的正溢出作用远大于低水平俱乐部,这使得高低水平俱乐部之间差异进一步拉大,从而促进了俱乐部趋同现象的发生。这在我国工业用水效率的俱乐部趋同中尤其明显。

Inspection,Measurement and Interpretation of Club Convergence of Water Resources Utilization Efficiency in China: 2003-2015

The study of club convergence of water resources utilization efficiency will help the government carry out regional water resource management more targetedly and focus on areas that have long been “trapped” in low efficiency. The paper studied the phenomenon of club convergence of total water use efficiency, agricultural water use efficiency and industrial water use efficiency in the 31 provinces of the mainland of China during 2003-2015 using extended Markov chain and extended spatial Markov chain model based on the Quah (1997) distribution dynamics analysis framework. Firstly, we examined the club convergence of three types of water efficiency. Then, we measured the extents of club convergence based on the constructed club convergence index. Finally, the phenomena of three types of club convergence were explained from a spatial point of view. The results show that: 1) There are a phenomenon of club convergence in the three types of water use efficiency which will be eased with time, but the phenomenon is still evident. For example, the probability that area with low industrial water use efficiency remained low after five years is 0.808, while that high-level remained high after five years is 0.918. Therefore, the coordination of regional water resources efficiency needs to be strengthened. 2) The industrial water use efficiency is the highest in the degree of club convergence, followed by the total water use efficiency, and the agricultural water efficiency is the lowest. The degree of differential curing of industrial water use efficiency is the most serious one that some areas have remained at low level for a long time and are caught in a “low level trap”, which should be taken seriously by the government. 3) The phenomenon of club convergence is influenced by spatial factors. On one hand, the adjacent areas with different water use efficiency have a certain influence on the water use efficiency in a region that high level adjacent areas have positive impact and low level adjacent areas have negative impact. On the other hand, there are spatial agglomerations of high and low level clubs, so there is spatial spillover effect inside clubs. However, the positive spillover effect in high level clubs is much larger than that in low level clubs, which makes the difference between high and low level clubs widen further so as to promote the phenomenon of club convergence. This is particularly evident in the club convergence of industrial water use efficiency in China.