中国农村生态环境质量动态评价及未来发展趋势预测

客观评价和预测我国农村生态环境质量状况及发展趋势,对于保障粮食安全、实现农村经济可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。论文基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型框架,构建了我国农村生态环境质量评价指标体系,分析了2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的动态变化。基于GM(1,1)模型,预测了"十三五"期间我国农村生态环境质量的发展态势。研究结果表明:2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的综合评价得分从0.669下降到0.387,农村生态环境质量总体呈现恶化趋势,农村生态环境承受的污染排放压力越来越大,环境治理投入较少,尚未形成对农村生态环境恶化情形的逆转。如果继续延续过去农业经济发展模式,2020年我国农村生态环境质量状况将会持续恶化,与"十三五"绿色发展的良好愿景目标相差甚远。

Dynamic Assessment and Trend Prediction of Rural Eco-environmental Quality in China

Objectively assessing rural eco-environmental quality and predicting its development trend have important theoretical and practical significance for food security, sustainable development of rural economy, and harmonious relationship between economic growth and ecological environment. Based on the framework of PSR model, the paper constructed an evaluating index system to assess the dynamic changes of rural eco-environment during 2000-2015. And the GM grey system theory model was applied to predict the evolution trend of rural eco-environment during the 13rd Five-Year Plan period. The results showed: 1) The quality of rural eco-environment had been falling in the past 15 years. The comprehensive evaluated score of rural eco-environment decreased from 0.669 in 2000 to 0.387 in 2015. The pollutions emission in rural areas was increasing, but the input to environmental protection was low. The continuing growth of Chinese rural economy was at the cost of ecological and environmental deterioration. 2) According to the past growth mode of rural economics, rural eco-environmental quality will continue deteriorating during 2016-2020, far from the expectation of green development during the 13rd Five-Year Plan. We need to change the mode of rural production as soon as possible in order to ease the pressure on rural soil and water imposed by fertilizers and pesticides, and enhance investment in rural environmental protection as much as possible.