地下水漏斗区农户冬小麦休耕意愿的影响因素及其生态补偿标准研究——以河北衡水为例

近年来,国家大力提倡耕地休养生息,推行土地休耕制度,以提高地力,保障农业可持续发展。由于水资源短缺已经成为制约我国华北地区经济社会发展的重要因素。华北地下水漏斗区作为土地休耕的三个试点之一,主要目标是退耕高耗水的冬小麦,实现“一季休耕、一季雨养”,以减少地下水用量,修复地下水环境。农户作为农村最主要的生产与经营主体,如何给予农户合理的补偿,使其有效地实施冬小麦休耕政策成为缓解华北地区水资源短缺的关键因素。论文运用问卷调查法、机会成本法与Logistic模型对意愿与补偿标准进行分析,探讨了河北衡水地下水漏斗区农户冬小麦休耕意愿的主要影响因素及其生态补偿标准的合理性,以便为我国科学合理地制定地下水漏斗区耕地轮作休耕政策提供理论依据。研究结果表明：1）农户的文化程度、家庭农业劳动力总数、抚养比、农户对地下水漏斗区冬小麦休耕态度、农户对政府实行政策的信任度与农户休耕意愿呈显著的正向影响;2）务农工日、耕地质量、人均耕地面积与农户休耕意愿呈显著的负向影响;3）只考虑冬小麦对地下水影响,不考虑农产品市场价格变化的影响,建议河北衡水地区休耕农户补偿标准为518元/亩（7 770元/hm²）。最后论文提出了因地制宜地制定地下水漏斗区冬小麦休耕的补偿政策,发展绿色产业,转移剩余劳动力,并做好休耕政策宣传力度等政策建议。

Influence Factors and Ecological Compensation Standard of Winter Wheat-fallow in the Groundwater Funnel Area

In recent years, China has vigorously promoted the rehabilitation of cultivated land and the implementation of land fallow policy so as to enhance its land reclamation and guarantee the sustainable development of agriculture. The shortage of water resources has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development in North China. As one of the three pilot sites for fallow land cultivation in North China, the main goal is to fallow high-water-consumption winter wheat and achieve the “one fallow season and one rainy season” policy to reduce the amount of groundwater mining and repair the groundwater environment. Farmers, as the main production and management entities in rural areas, will undoubtedly influence the smooth implementation of policies by understanding and adapting the fallow policies. The winter wheat-fallow policy is a way to alleviate the shortage of water resources in North China. However, the effective implementation of the policy depends on the reasonable compensation to the farmers. This paper discusses the reasonableness of the ecological compensation standard for winter wheat-fallow in the groundwater funnel area in Hebei Province and the main factors affecting the farmer's willingness to fallow. The purpose is to provide theoretical basis for scientifically and rationally developing the rotation policy in the groundwater funnel area. A survey based on questionnaires was conducted, and then the opportunity cost method and Logistic model were used to analyze the willingness of farmers and the compensation standard. The results are as follows: 1) Farmer's educational level, the total number of agricultural labor force in a household, the dependency rate, the attitude of farmers towards winter wheat-fallow policy in the groundwater funnel area and the degree that the farmer's trust in government policy have significantly positive effect on farmer's willingness to fallow. 2) The number of days of participation in farming, cultivated land quality and per capita area of cultivated land have significantly negative effect on farmer's willingness to fallow. 3) Considering only the impact of winter wheat on groundwater, the proposed standard of compensation to farmers is 518 yuan/mu (7 770 yuan/hm²). Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions on how to formulate the compensation policy of winter wheat fallow in the groundwater funnel area, develop the green industry, transfer the surplus labor force, and propagate the fallow policy.