基于DPSIRM框架的区域水资源承载力综合评价

综合考虑影响水资源系统的资源、生态、环境、经济、社会等因素,论文通过对水资源系统内在机理研究,构建基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）概念框架的水资源承载力DPSIRM评价指标体系,给出各子系统明确的含义,以反映系统内部各要素之间的关系。在此基础上,将模拟退火算法用于投影寻踪优化,构建耦合SA-PP模型。并将模型应用于2003—2012年云南省水资源承载力综合评价,并分析投影特征值的历年变化特征。研究结果表明：2003—2012年云南省水资源承载力呈逐步上升趋势,即在当前社会经济发展水平下,云南省水资源承载力逐步增强,社会经济发展的规模处于水资源可支撑的规模范围内。2006年以前,水资源承载力呈加速增长趋势,其增长潜力较大。2006年以后,水资源承载力波动幅度较大,而2009和2011年年增幅趋于零。最佳投影方向各分量的大小反映了各评价指标对水资源承载力的影响程度,值越大则对应的评价指标对水资源承载力的影响程度越大。对水资源承载力影响程度最大的5项指标依次为：生活污水排放量、“三废”治理投资、人均GDP、单位GDP水耗和森林覆盖率。压力子系统对水资源承载力影响比重为26.15%,表明压力子系统是影响云南省水资源承载力的最重要因子。研究表明此模型具有实用性,可为区域水资源规划与管理提供科学决策依据。

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on DPSIRM

By inherent mechanism study of water resource system, an evaluation index system based on DPSIRM model is established which takes the influences including resource, ecology, environment, economy and society into consideration. The paper gives the clear definition of each subsystem, which reflects the scientific relationship between each factor within the system. On that basis, coupling SA-PP model is established, and the parameters of projection pursuit are optimized by simulated annealing. The model is used to evaluate the water resource carrying capacity of Yunnan Province from 2003 to 2012, and the projection eigenvalues are analyzed. The study shows that, from 2003 to 2012, the water resources carrying capacity of Yunnan Province was increasing steadily. Under the current situation of economic and social development, water resource carrying capacity can carry the social economic development. Before 2006, the resource carrying capacity had an increasingly enlarged tendency, showing great potential of growth. After 2006, the fluctuation of water resources carrying capacity increased. The growth of water resource carrying capacity was close to zero in 2009 and 2011. The best projection direction reflects the impact degree of each index on water resource carrying capacity, the greater the value, the greater the impact of the corresponding evaluation index on the water resources carrying capacity. The main indexes affecting the water resource carrying capacity are the domestic sewage emissions, the “three wastes” control investment, per capital GDP, the water consumption per unit GDP and the forest coverage. The pressure subsystem accounts for 26.15% of water resource carrying capacity, being the most important factor. This model is practical, which can provide scientific basis for the planning and management of regional water resource.