基于PSO优化逻辑斯蒂曲线的水资源安全评价模型

论文引入“压力-状态-响应”框架模型构建区域水资源安全定量评价的指标体系,采用逻辑斯蒂（Logistic）曲线模拟区域水资源安全评价,公式中的参数采用粒子群算法（PSO）进行优化,并用灵敏度分析的方法对公式进行了可靠性分析。优化好的Logistic指数公式用于安徽省16个地级市水资源安全评价,计算得到各地级市评价指数和相应的评价等级,并对压力层、状态层、响应层子系统进行分析。评价结果表明,基于粒子群算法优化的Logistic指数公式用于区域水资源安全评价,具有合理性和可行性,能为区域水资源规划与管理决策提供科学依据。

Water Security Evaluation Model Based on the Logistic Curve Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization

Pressure-state-response frame model was introduced to build the index system of regional water resource security quantitative assessment. The Logistic index model was used to simulate the influence of each index, and the parameters in Logistic index formula were optimized with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Sensitivity analysis was adapted to verify the reliability of the Logistic index formula. The evaluation indexes and grades of each prefecture-level city in Anhui Province were calculated by the optimized Logistic index formula, and the sub-systems of pressure, status, and respond were evaluated as well. The main conclusions are as following: Huangshan, Chizhou, Xuancheng, Tongling, Anqing, Lu’an, and Wuhu ranked grade Ⅱ among sixteen prefecture-level cities. Ma’anshan, Hefei, Huainan, Chuzhou, Huaibei, Bengbu, Suzhou, and Bozhou ranked grade Ⅲ. Fuyang ranked grade Ⅳ as insecure water resources. Further analysis on water resources security in pressure, status, and respond sub-systems showed that indicators of pressure sub-system reflected the effect of human economic and social activities on water resources. The indexes of Tongling, Hefei, Huainan and Ma’anshan are higher, indicating that the social economic, technical level and climate condition in these four cities provide better support to regional water resources. State sub-system reflected the safe coefficient of regional water resources. The indexes of Chizhou, Huangshan and Xuancheng are higher, showing safer utilization of regional water resources. Response sub-system reflected the countermeasures of water resources issues. The index of Hefei is the highest, showing that Hefei has the highest response intensity on water resources issues. The study shows that the Logical index formula optimized by particle swarm optimization is practical and feasible for regional water security assessment, and it provides scientific basis for regional water resource planning and management.