林地面积增加提高了农户营林积极性吗?——基于9省1 504个农户数据的倾向值匹配分析

论文利用9省1 504个农户调研数据,实证检验了新一轮集体林改后林地面积增加对农户营林积极性的因果效应。考虑到农户对林地经营面积决策的内生性问题,采用倾向值匹配方法对选择性偏差进行控制。匹配后,处理组和控制组在多个标准上均通过了平衡性检验。结果显示,林地面积增加确实促进了农户营林积极性的提高,但这是一个缓慢的动态调整过程。其中,资本投入强度在2010年以后才逐步表现为显著增加,增长率约为25%~27%,2013年进一步强化为28%~34%。资本投入强度的增加主要是由化肥和农药投入增加引起的,对种苗的投入强度并没有显著改善。这种差异说明,新一轮林改提高了农户的森林经营和管护积极性,但对造林行为的影响有限。同时农户并没有因为林地面积增加而显著提高劳动力的投入强度。这种资本对劳动的替代与农户的非农就业行为密切相关。

Does More Forestland Improve Farmers’ Forest Management Enthusiasm: A Propensity Score Matching Approach with 1 504 Households Dataset of Nine Provinces

Based on 1 504 households data from nine provinces, this paper investigated the casual effect of forestlands increase on farmers’ forest management enthusiasm after China’s new round collective forestlands tenure reform since 2003. Considering the endogeneity of farmers’decision on forestlands management area, the propensity score matching (PSM) method was employed to control selective bias. After score matching, the treated and controlled groups both passed the balance test. The estimation results of PSM showed that the capital input on forestlands had significant increase of 25%-27% and 28%-34% in 2010 and 2013, respectively. However, the increase was not significant in 2007. Hence, the increase of forestlands indeed has truly improved farmers’ forest management enthusiam, but requires a dynamic and long-run process. The increase of capital intensities are mainly caused by the increase of fertilizer and pesticide inputs, but not by the increase amount of seed. The result implies that China’s new round collective forestlands tenure reform had constrained effect on afforestation. Meanwhile, contrary to the increase of capital input, the labour intensity has not been improved significantly mainly because of farmers’ off-farm behaviors.