近50 a来海南岛不同气候区气候变化特征研究

利用均匀分布在海南岛的7个国家标准气象站1959-2008年温度和降水资料以及海南岛气候区划成果,研究海南岛近50 a来不同气候区的气候变化特征,结果显示:近50 a来海南岛各气候区的温度总体呈上升趋势,并以东北区及西南区温度上升最为明显,其次是中部山区、东南区和西北区。在年际尺度上,不同温度指标的增幅大小排列为:年平均最低温度(T_min)>年平均温度(T_mean)>年平均最高温度(T_max)。在季节尺度上为:秋季和冬季>春季和夏季。不同气候区各季节的增温幅度地区间差异与年际尺度相似。各气候区的年平均温度都有突变发生。其中,西南区的突变时间为1972-1974年,西北区为1979年,东北区为1987年,东南区为1985-1990年,中部山区为1990年。各气候区累年平均降水量差异较大,以中部山区降水最为丰沛,西南区相对较少;各气候区在年际尺度上的降水波动较大,除西南区外,年降水量距平都未通过P<0.05的显著性检验。干季和湿季的降水量对年降水总量的贡献率以湿季最大,为80%,干季较小,为20%;干季多小雨,湿季多大雨。在干季,中部山区降水的贡献率最大,其他气候区相对较小,而湿季却相反。各气候区大雨和暴雨的降水量约占年降水总量的50%;西南区为大暴雨及特大暴雨多发地区。

Research on Climate Change Characteristics of Different Climatic Regions in Hainan Island in the Last 50 Years

By connecting temperature and precipitation data of seven national standard meteorological stations which were evenly distributed in Hainan Island from 1959 to 2008 with the existing climatic regionalization of Hainan Island, we studied climate change of different climatic regions in Hainan Island in the last 50 years. And the result showed that the trend of temperature increase obviously existed in these regions in the last 50 years, with warming amplitudes being higher in Northeast, Southwest, Central Mountain, Southeast and Northwest regions, respectively. In interannual time scale, the warming amplitudes of annual average maximum temperature (T_max), annual mean temperature (T_mean) and annual average minimum temperature (T_min) were decreasing from T_min to T_max. In seasonal time scale, the annual mean temperature (T_mean) was increasing seasonally in different regions, with warming amplitudes being higher in winter, autumn, spring and summer, respectively. The seasonal warming amplitudes of geographic differences were similar to those in interannual time scale. What’s more, the abrupt change of T_mean was changeable in different climatic regions, being 1972-1974 in Southwest, 1979 in Northwest, 1987 in Northeast, 1985-1990 in Southeast, and 1990 in Central Mountain regions, respectively. And the annual average precipitations were changeable in different climatic regions which were higher in Central Mountain regions, then decreasing in the order of Southeast, Northwest, Northeast and Southwest. On the other hand, the annual precipitation anomaly and abrupt change of all climatic regions fluctuated sharply except Southwest region which got through the significance test (P<0.05). Generally, percentages of dry/wet seasonal precipitation accounted for 20% and 80% respectively in annual precipitation in different climatic regions. Light rainfall mainly occurred in dry season while heavy rainfall mainly in wet season. And the contribution rate of precipitation in dry season is the highest in Central Mountain region while in wet season it was the contrary. The precipitation levels of heavy rain and rainstorm had great influence on annual precipitation, which accounted for about 50% of total precipitation. And Southwest region was the heavy rainstorm and extremely heavy rainstorm-prone area.