新疆玛纳斯河流域农业水资源可利用潜力分析

结合新疆玛纳斯河流域水文水资源、种植结构和节水技术发展等资料,从开源、节流两方面对流域近期(至2010年)、中远期(2010-2030年)农业水资源极限潜力、可挖掘潜力进行了估算。结果表明,就目前水资源的利用水平和开发趋势,玛纳斯河流域未来农业水资源的主要利用途径是开源与节流相结合,以节流为主。全流域尚有的农业灌溉水资源极限潜力为10.75×10⁸m³,近期农业水资源可挖掘潜力为2.13×10⁸m³,其中开源增水潜力0.40×10⁸m³,占18.8%,节流增水潜力1.73×10⁸m³,占81.2%;中远期农业水资源可挖掘潜力5.33×10⁸m³,其中开源增水潜力1.12×10⁸m³,占21.0%,节流增水潜力4.21×10⁸m³,占79.0%。该研究对区域制订节水灌溉规划及水资源系统优化配置具有重要参考价值。

Analysis on the Potential of the Available Agriculture Water Resources in Manas River Valley, Xinjiang

Based on the analysis of hydrological data,planting structure and water-saving technology development in Manas River Valley in Xinjiang,the potential of the available agricultu-ral water resources in the future was quantitatively estimated by considering surface water-saving and groundwater exploitation potential.It was considered that the main approach about increasing agricultural water resource was to reduce the waste of surface water in this region according to actual situation of water resources use.The results also showed that the ultimate utilization volume of agricultural water resources in the future can reach 10.75×10⁸m³.The potential of the available agricultural water resources would reach 2.13×10⁸m³ in 2010,of which groundwater and surface water exploitation potential was equivalent to 0.40×10⁸m³ and 1.73×10⁸m³ respectively,which accounted for 18.8% and 81.2% of the total agricultural water resources potential.In 2010～2030,the potential of the available agricultural water resources would equal to 5.33×10⁸m³,which was composed of 1.12×10⁸m³ of groundwater exploitation volume and 4.21×10⁸m³ of surface water-saving,which accounted for 21.0% and 79.0% of the total water-saving potential respectively.This study conclusion can be applied to agriculture water resources exploitation and water-saving planning,which is also very important to realize the rational allocation of water resources and the sustainable development of economy.