山东省水资源承载力的动力学预测

水资源承载力是区域自然资源承载力的重要组成部分,是水资源紧缺地区能否支撑人口、经济与环境协调发展的一个限制指标。论文用动力学模型,通过3种方案对山东省未来20年水资源承载力进行预测,结果表明:3种方案在未来20年的水资源平衡指数都是小于零的,这说明,水资源对应的社会经济系统是不可承载的,经济规模也是不可以承载的,人口规模只有方案2可以承载。从方案1预测的结果看,从2006年到2025年,山东省总需水量在270×10⁸～340×10⁸m³之间,波动不是很大,工业用水上升了3倍,但农业用水下降不大;从方案2预测的结果看,总需水量变动较大,20年增加了近3倍,水资源消耗量太大,因此笔者认为,在未来的20年里,山东省应加强宏观调控,适当控制GDP的增长速度,并大幅度降低单位GDP的水资源消耗量,真正落实科学发展观,实现可持续发展;从方案3预测的结果看,山东省总需水量波动不是很大,尽管工业发展很快,但由于万元工业增加值用水量下降较大,所以整体工业用水量不升反降,农业用水量也在下降,这是我们所希望的结果。

Prediction on the Dynamics of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province

Water resource is not only an important material basis of socio-economic development,but also an irreplaceable natural resource.Water resources carrying capacity is an importance part of regional natural resources carrying capacity,which is a restriction factor in the region tightly short of water resources whether can support harmonious devplopment of population,economy and environment.A dynamic model is set up in this paper and the water resources carrying capacity in the next 20 years in Shandong Province is predicted by three kinds of projects.The results indicate that water resources carrying capacity equilibrium indexes are all smaller than a zero during the next 20 years under the three kinds of projects,demonstrating that the water resources carrying capacity responded socio-economic system can’t carry.From project 1,from 2006 to the year 2025,the total water demand of Shandong Province fluctuates between 270×10⁸ and 340×10⁸m³ with an increase of industial water consumption of 300%,but slight change in agricultural water consumption decline.From project 2,the total water demand will have a big fluctuation with an increase of nearly 300% in the next 20 years and the quantity of water resources consumed is too great,consequently,we suggest that,in the next 20 years,Shandong Province should strengthen a macro view to adjust and control the speed of GDP growth,and significantly reduce water resources consumption of unit GDP,which can truly realize science development view and sustainable development.From project 3,the fluctuation of the total water demand isn’t very great in Shandong Province,though its industry develops very fast,the industrial water demand of every increased ten thousand yuan descends greatly,the overall industrial water demand does not increase but decreases,and the agricultural water consumption also decreases.This is just what we expect.