内蒙古农牧交错带农业灾情及其动态变化研究

本文选择我国北方典型易灾、多灾、重灾的区域--内蒙古农牧交错带,通过一系列反映农业灾情的指标,分析了本区农业灾情的现状及空间分布规律,总结出农业灾情的4种主要类型。利用产量偏差率这一指标,用模糊聚类分析方法,进行灾情过程一致性分区,讨论了农业灾情的动态变化规律及区域分界,揭示出不同的区域在减产年出现的时段、减产程度、对应的致灾因子等方面具有不同的特点。

A STUDY ON THE AGRICULTURAL DISASTER SITUATION AND ITS DYNAMIC CHANGE IN THE AGRICULTURAL-PASTORAL BELT OF INNER MONGOLIA

In this paper, the agricultural-pastoral belt of Inner Mongolia (a very typical region with heavy agricultural disasters)is selected as a study area. Through a series of indexes that reflect the agricultural disaster situation, the present conditions and spatial distribution regularity of the disaster situation are analyzed. There are four principal kinds of agricultural disaster situation. By using the index of product deciation rate, according to the method of Fuzzy Classification, the regions with the same disaster situation are divided. At the same time,the laws of the dynamic change and the regional difference of agricultural disaster situation are discussed. It has been found that in different regions there are different characteristics about the period when the product reduction year occurs,the degree of product reduction and the related hazard-formating factors.