气候变暖背景下西南地区干旱灾害风险评估

论文利用全国基准基本站地面气温、降水资料,NCAR/NCEP土壤湿度资料及各类经济数据,采用加权综合评价法对西南地区干旱灾害风险因子进行分析,结果表明：四川和云南致灾因子危险性较高,气候变暖后四川东南部、云南和贵州西部危险性增加;西南地区中部到东南部成灾环境敏感性较高,气候变暖后四川东部、贵州及云南东部敏感性增加;承灾体易损性主要分布于西南中东部地区,人口密度、经济密度、耕地面积比重越高的地区易损性程度越高;四川中部、云南东北部、贵州南部及重庆西部防灾减灾能力较高。西南地区干旱灾害风险最高区域为云南东部、四川东部、贵州西部及重庆大部分地区;气候变暖后四川东南部、云南西部危险性明显增加。

Risk Assessment of Drought Disaster in Southwest China under the Background of Climate Warming

This paper used nationwide standard data of temperature, precipitation at basic stations, NCAR/NCEP soil moisture data and various economic data to analyze the risk factors of drought disaster in Southwest China. It indicated that the risk of drought disaster-inducing factor was higher in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces and the risk increased in the southeastern Sichuan, Yunnan and western Guizhou after the climate warming. The environmental sensibility of disaster was higher in the middle and the southeastern part of Southwest China, and environmental sensibility increased in eastern Sichuan, Guizhou and eastern Yunnan after climate warming. The vulnerability of hazard was higher in the middle and east part of Southwest China where the population density, economy density and proportion of cultivated land area were high. The ability of preventing and reducing disaster was higher in the middle of Sichuan, northeastern Yunnan and northern Guizhou. The area with the highest risk of drought disaster distributed in eastern Yunnan, eastern Sichuan, western Guizhou and Chongqing, and the risk increased in southeastern Sichuan and western Yunnan after climate warming.