中国优势金属供应全球需求的风险评估

随着新一轮科技革命和产业转型的发展,全球金属资源供需格局发生重大调整,美国、欧盟、日本等主要发达国家不断倒逼中国敞开优势金属供应。为保障国家金属资源安全,论文从可依赖性、可持续性、可承受性3个维度建立了一套金属资源供应风险评估体系,对中国优势金属供应全球需求的风险进行评估,结果表明：1）中国优势金属整体供应风险较高,铟、铋等两种金属风险值都在80以上,处于高风险水平;锑、锗、钡、镁、钨、稀土等6种金属风险值都是60~80之间,处于中高风险水平;镓、锶等两种金属处于中风险水平。2）在10种中国优势金属中,钡的可依赖性风险最高,达到81.88,稀土的风险最低,只有42.42。铟的可持续性风险最高,达到81.80;锑的最低,风险值为69.46。铟的可承受性风险也最高,高达100;铋的次之,风险值为89.23;钡的最低,只有33.96。3）随着未来新兴产业的快速发展,中国优势金属的供应风险将更加严峻。

Risk Assessment of China’s Preponderant Metals’ Supplying Global Demand

With the development of technological revolution and industrial transformation, the global supply and demand situation of metal resources have undergone significant adjustments. The United States, Japan, European Union and other major developed countries continue forcing China to open the preponderant metal supply in the existing multilateral trading system. Evaluating the risk of China’s preponderant metals’ supplying global demand is significant to guarantee the national metal resource security. Based on defining the scope of China’s preponderant metals, this paper gives a quantitative assessment on the risk of China’s preponderant metals’ supplying global demand from three dimensions: reliability, sustainability and affordability. The results show that: 1) The overall supply risk of China’s preponderant metals is high. Indium and bismuth are in high risk, having risk scores over 80; Antimony, germanium, barium, magnesium, tungsten and rare earth are in mid-high risk, having risk scores between 60-80; only gallium and strontium are in mid-risk, having risk scores between 40-60. 2) The reliability risk of barium is the highest which is 81.88, followed by the reliability risk of antimony which is 81.32, and rare earth has the lowest reliability risk which is only 42.42. Indium has the highest sustainability risk which is 81.80, while antimony has the lowest sustainability risk which is 69.46. Indium also has the highest affordability risk which is up to 100, followed by bismuth which has the affordability risk score of 89.23, and barium has the lowest affordability risk which is just 33.96. 3) With the rapid development of emerging industries, the supply risk of antimony, germanium, barium, magnesium, tungsten, indium and bismuth will increase in 2025. More severe supply circumstances will be faced by China’s preponderant metals.