现阶段中国农地利用专业化的主要限制因素

中国农地利用专业化发展缓慢,落后于西方发达国家,成为其农产品国际竞争力不足的一个重要影响因素。对其原因,目前学术界仍存争议,尚无令人信服的结论。论文利用1991—2013年全国、省域,以及2001—2013年县域（杭嘉湖地区）3个尺度的种植面积数据,采用赫芬达尔专业化指数（SHHI）,并结合关联政策的资料分析,重点检验主粮生产对农地利用专业化的主控性和限制性,探讨现阶段中国农地利用专业化的主要限制因素。结果显示：1）现阶段中国农地利用专业化水平受主粮播种面积占比的控制,全国和省域尺度上,无论时间维度还是空间维度,两变量均在5%以下显著性水平上呈正相关关系;县域尺度上,两变量在空间维度上呈显著高度正相关,时间维度上76%的区县呈显著正相关。2）粮食生产保护政策约束了粮食作物的退出,压缩了非粮作物的增长空间,限制了农地利用专业化的发展。结果表明,国家对粮食（尤其是主粮）生产的保护是现阶段中国农地利用专业化的主要限制因素。因此,论文提出转变“粮食安全”观、优化农业生产布局等促进农地利用专业化的政策建议。

Main Limiting Factor of the Regional Specialization of Agricultural Land Use in China

The regional specialization of agricultural land-use in China lags behind those in developed countries and develops slowly, which makes agricultural products of China lack of international competitiveness. However, there is no convincing conclusion that can explain the reason. In this paper, we examined the controllability and limitation of main grain production in the specialization of agricultural land-use based on the specialization index of Hirschman-Herfindahl (SHHI), the planting area data at national and provincial level during 1991-2013 and at county-level in Hangjiahu area during 2001-2013, combined with the analysis of related policies. The reason why the regional specialization of agricultural land-use in China developed slowly was explored. At present, the regional specialization was controlled by the proportion of main grain acreage (PMGA). The SHHI and PMGA had positively correlation at 5% significant level in both temporal and spatial dimensions at both national level and provincial level. At county-level, in spatial dimensions, SHHI had a significant positive correlation with PMGA; in temporal dimensions, there were 76% of counties whose SHHI had significant positive correlation with PMGA. Furthermore, we found that grain protection policy constrained the withdrawal of grain crops, which compressed the growth of other crops and limited the specialization of agricultural land-use. The results indicated that the protection policy of grain (especially main grain) production is the main limiting factor of agricultural land-use specialization in China at the present stage. Therefore, we suggested changing the concept of “grain security” and optimizing the layout of agriculture.