生态脆弱区榆林三维生态足迹动态变化及其驱动因素

榆林能源丰富但生态脆弱,是生态工程的重点实施区域。分析榆林自然资本存量及流量的利用状况,有利于揭示自然资本占用的成因、探讨生态脆弱区环境保护与经济社会可持续发展的问题。在测算榆林2005—2014年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、生态压力指数等的基础上,以足迹深度和广度描述了自然资本存量消耗与流量占用的变化关系,并以偏最小二乘法分析了驱动生态足迹变化的因素。结果显示：10 a来榆林人均生态赤字增长幅度为274.18%,其中,能源消耗账户贡献率最高;人均生态承载力增加了61.81%,体现出生态建设的正向作用。榆林对资本存量消耗的速度大于资本流量占用的速度。影响生态足迹变化的显著因素是经济增长和社会消费。这些结论不仅对榆林自然资本利用与经济协调发展具有参考意义,而且对生态脆弱区核算自然资本、探讨生态系统与经济社会系统间的关系有一定的学术价值。

Dynamic Changes and Driving Factors of Three Dimensional Ecological Footprint in Yulin

Yulin is rich in energy but fragile in ecology. It is an important area for ecological engineering. It is necessary to analyze the status of natural capital stock and flow in Yulin and reveal the causes of natural capital occupation for the study of environment protection and sustainable development in ecological fragile areas. Basing on the calculation of ecological footprint per capita, ecological carrying capacity per capita, ecological deficit per capita and ecological pressure index in Yulin during 2005-2014, the paper describes the relationship between natural stock capital occupation and natural flow capital consumption through the depth and size of ecological footprint and studies the factors driving the ecological footprint changes with Partial Least Square (PLS) model. The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint in Yulin increased from 2.684 hm²/cap to 5.932 hm²/cap during 2005-2014, where the energy consumption accounted for the highest contribution. The ecological pressure index showed an overall increase from 1.387 to 1.894, except in 2013. The ecological footprint depth was 1.889 in 2005 and reached 2.380 by 2014, which means that a region as 2.380 times large as Yulin is needed to support the resource depletion in Yulin. The ecological footprint size increased from 1.421 hm²/cap in 2005 to 2.492 hm²/cap in 2014, where the ecological footprint size in 2013 increased significantly. In 2014, the consumption of capital stock in Yulin was 1.380 times of the amount of capital flow. The results of PLS model show that the factors affecting ecological footprint are mainly economic growth and social consumption. Yulin is facing severe ecological pressure, and energy consumption is the main reason for the rise of ecological pressure. The per capita ecological carrying capacity increased by 61.81% over the past 10 years, indicating that the implementation of ecological construction project plays an effective and positive role in improving the ecological carrying capacity. The consumption rate of capital stock in Yulin is faster than the rate of capital flow, and the substantial reduction of natural capital stock has seriously hindered the renewal of capital flow. These conclusions are of practical significance for the coordinated natural capital utilization and economic development in Yulin as well as provide a reference for natural capital utilization accounting in ecologically fragile areas.