农业生产效率对农业用水量的影响

2016年中国农业用水量占用水总量的60%以上,水资源成为国家农业安全的重要保障,而影响农业用水量的因素较多。论文首先采用非期望产出的Super-SBM模型测度1998—2015年中国30个省份（西藏、香港、澳门、台湾缺少资料,未计算）的农业生产效率,再利用非参数核密度估计演示主要年份农业生产效率和农业用水量的动态变化,然后借鉴Hansen的门槛模型检验农业生产效率对农业用水量的“门槛效应”。结果表明：1）我国农业生产效率呈倒“U”型走势,省际间差异性减弱;农业用水量先下降后上升,省际间差距存在扩大的趋势。2）提高农业生产效率是降低农业用水量的有效途径,农业生产效率对农业用水量存在显著的“门槛抑制效应”,抑制强度呈“N”型走势。3）扩大粮食作物种植比例、增加农村劳动力和提高农村居民收入均能有效抑制农业用水量增加,而水资源禀赋、水利投资和耕地灌溉面积与农业用水量呈正相关性,农民受教育水平回归结果不显著。

Influence of Agricultural Production Efficiency on Agricultural Water Consumption

China’s agricultural water consumption accounted for more than 60% of the total water consumption in 2016. Water has become an important guarantee for national agricultural safety. Improving agricultural production efficiency is conducive to reducing agricultural water consumption. Firstly, this paper uses the Super-SBM model of non-expected output to measure the agricultural production efficiency of 30 provinces in China during the period of 1998-2015. Then, the paper applies non-parametric kernel density estimation to present the agricultural production efficiency and agricultural water consumption in some important years and months. Finally, the threshold model by Hansen is used to examine the threshold effect of agricultural production efficiency on agricultural water consumption. The result shows the inverted “U”-shaped trend of China’s agricultural production efficiency, and inter-provincial differences were narrowing. Agricultural water consumption decreased first and then rose with the expanded gaps among provinces. Improving agricultural production efficiency is an effective way to reduce agricultural water consumption. Agricultural production efficiency exerts threshold effect in controlling agricultural water consumption which shows “N”-shaped trend. The increase of the proportion of grain crops, rural labor force and income of rural residents can effectively inhibit the increase of agricultural water consumption. Water resources endowment, water investment and irrigated area are positively correlated with agricultural water consumption. What’s more, the effect of peasants’ education level is not significant.