秦岭植被覆盖时空变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的双重响应

论文基于MODIS-NDVI数据、DEM及气象数据,辅以趋势分析、多元回归残差法、偏最小二乘回归法,反演了秦岭地区2000—2015年植被覆盖度及分析了其“格局—过程—趋势”的变化特征,探究了其对气候变化与人类活动的双重响应机制。结果表明：1）秦岭地区近16 a来植被覆盖度呈显著上升趋势,增速为2.77%/10 a,呈“中间高、周边低,西部高、东部低,南坡高、北坡低”的空间格局,植被覆盖度随海拔的升高在2 200 m左右达到最大,700~3 200 m达0.7以上,1 300~2 700 m达0.9以上,3 400 m以上为0.5以下的低值区;2）秦岭地区的植被覆盖与气候因子的响应关系存在明显的空间差异,对气温的响应总体上没有明显的时滞效应,而与降水的响应存在以滞后1个月为主的时滞效应;3）人类活动对秦岭地区植被变化的作用日趋增强,且以正向作用为主,主要分布在东部地区,而负向作用则分布于中部和西部地区;4）秦岭地区植被变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果,影响因子对植被覆盖变化的解释能力依次为人类活动>降水>气温>潜在蒸散量。

Spatial-temporal Variation of the Vegetation Coverage in Qinling Mountains and Its Dual Response to Climate Change and Human Activities

The Qinling Mountains, a key ecological zone of terrestrial ecosystem, has experienced a significant change of vegetation coverage in recent years. Based on MODIS-NDVI data, DEM data and meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, humidity and wind speed, this paper calculated the Fractional Vegetation Coverage (FVC) in Qinling Mountains, analyzed the background characteristics of the “pattern-process-trend” change, and explored the dual response mechanism of the vegetation coverage to climate change and human activities with trend analysis method, multiple regression method-residual method and PLS regression method. The results of the study showed that: First, the FVC in Qinling Mountains showed a significant increase trend at a growth rate of 2.77%/10 a during 2000-2015, with a very significant upward trend in the southern slope at a growth rate of 3.8%/10 a and a non-significant downward trend in the northern slope. In the space, FVC showed the pattern that is “high in the middle, low in the surroundings; high in the west, low in the east; high in the south-slope, low in the north-slope”. Second, the level of FVC in Qinling Mountains varied greatly, and the order of each FVC grade in area was Ⅴ, Ⅳ, Ⅲ, Ⅱ and Ⅰ, the area of Ⅰ and Ⅴ showing significant upward trend while the area of others showing decline trend. Third, the change of FVC at different altitudes was significantly different. There was a significant upward trend under 1 500 m and obvious downward trend at 2 600 m, while there was no obvious change at 1 500-2 600 m. With the increase of altitude, the FVC reached a maximum at 2 200 m. The FVC at 700-3 200 m was more than 0.7 and at 1 300-2 700 m was more than 0.9, and values below 0.5 mainly appeared in high altitude area above 3 400 m. Forth, there were significant spatial differences in the response of vegetation coverage to climatic factors. The response of vegetation coverage to precipitation had time lag, with a lag of one month, while the response to temperature did not have time lag. Fifth, the role of human activities was increasing rapidly, with the growth rate of 2.10%/10 a. The positive effect of human activities on FVC mainly distributed in the eastern region, and the negative effect of human activities mainly distributed in the central and western regions. Finally, the FVC changes were the results of both climate change and human activities, and the impact factors from strong to weak are human activity, precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration.