生态经济持续性的度量和趋势预测——以甘肃武威市为例

应用生态占用模型,对武威市生态经济的可持续性进行了评价。对武威的生物资源、能源资源和制成品资源消费的生态占用的计算结果表明,1999年武威市人均占用生物生产性空间为1.589423hm₂,调整后的武威实际生产空间供给为0.856876hm₂/人。1999年武威生态赤字0.73254hm₂/人。对于世界56个国家和地区的人均生态占用和人均GDP数据进行分析,认为二者高度相关。用幂指数模型进行趋势拟合,具有较好的拟合优度和理论一致性。武威生态占用处于强的扩张时期,到2015年,人均生态占用将会达到2.60142hm₂/人,而当年实际生态承载力阈值预测值为1.0657hm₂/人。人均生态赤字扩大到1.5357hm₂/人。生态经济系统的运行是以过度消耗自然资本为代价的。

Measuring and forecasting regional sustainability of ecological economy: a case study of Wuwei City, Gansu Province, China

Using ecological footprint (EF)model,this article evaluates the ecological economic sustainability of Wuwei City.As a calculational result of biotic,manufactured and energetic re-sources consumption,the per capita EF is1.589423ha in1999.While the actual per capita bio-productive area,translated into a world average spatial productivity,is only0.856876ha,which implies an ecological deficit of per capita0.73254ha.Further,per capita EF and GDP of56countries and regions are analyzed and are proved to be of high correlation.The exponential model fits in well with their relationship,and it is of theoretical consistency.Applying this model,by the year2015,per capita ecological footprint of Wuwei will run up to2.60142ha,with ecological carrying capacity of only per capita1.0657ha.Per capita ecological deficit by then,will reach1.5357ha.