可持续发展评估的新方法：“甜甜圈”理论的中国案例分析

“甜甜圈”理论是行星边界可持续发展评估体系中不可或缺的一部分。在原有的15个社会经济系统评估维度的基础上,针对不同研究样本概括了每个维度对应的具体指标,并总结了指标阈值设定的方法,包括惯例的延续、经验的借鉴以及典型样本的参考等。在此基础上,利用统计年鉴和中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据,创新性地将“十二五”规划文件中相关指标的预期值设定为阈值,揭示了中国在收入水平和工作机会方面已达到最优状态,贫困问题得到了一定程度的解决,但水资源和能耗方面表现不佳;中国南部地区“自西向东”可持续发展程度越来越高,中国北部则是“自北往南”。社会经济系统需要在内容的丰富、理论的深化和阈值的客观设定等方面进一步完善。

New approach of sustainability evaluation: A Chinese case study of the "Doughnut Theory"

The socio-economic sphere is an indispensable part of Planetary Boundary (PB) sustainability evaluation system. In this context, this article makes a comprehensive review of theoretical and empirical literature regarding the existing socio-economic sphere. First, an evaluation has been made for a total of 15 socio-economic sphere dimensions proposed by the "Doughnut Theory". Second, based on the different types of research samples in terms of industrial, national, and cross-country aspects, we illustrated and analyzed one or more specific indicators corresponding to each dimension. Finally, we summarize the indicator threshold setting methods, including the continuation of conventions, the reference of experiences and the reference of typical samples. On the basis of summarizing and evaluating previous research results, this article takes 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China as samples for the first time, using statistical yearbooks and the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data to compare the corresponding indicators in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" (2011-2015) official document as the threshold, so that the sustainability status of China's socio-economic sphere under the PB framework has been evaluated. The results show that China has reached the optimal state in terms of income level and job opportunities, and the poverty problem has been partially alleviated, but the performance of water resources and energy consumption is not good. In terms of the improvement of sustainability level, Southern China shows a trend of "from west to east", while Northern China presents a trend of "from north to south". The socio-economic sphere needs to be further improved in terms of content enrichment, theoretical deepening, and objective setting of thresholds.