干旱区水—能源—粮食纽带系统协同演化——以中国西北地区为例

水、能源、粮食是人类社会发展的基本保障,三者之间的紧密联系成为近年来国内外学者关注的重点。通过对水—能源—粮食纽带系统协同演化机制的探究,能更好地厘清三者之间的相互关系,对实现社会高质量发展具有重要意义。基于自组织理论,从水、能源、粮食三个角度构建理论模型,运用哈肯模型分阶段地对中国西北地区水—能源—粮食纽带系统协同发展的演化机制进行探究,并在此基础上分析水—能源—粮食纽带系统协同得分的时空分异规律。结果表明：（1）2000—2010年间,中国西北地区水—能源—粮食纽带系统协同演化的序参量是水资源子系统,其主导着整个系统的演化方向,而能源子系统、粮食子系统处于从属地位。在协同得分的时空变化规律上,西北五省区协同得分整体呈上升趋势,但各地区得分差距较大。（2）2011—2018年间,中国西北地区水—能源—粮食纽带系统协同演化的序参量是水资源子系统和能源子系统,两者共同主导着水—能源—粮食纽带系统的协同演化,粮食子系统则处于从属地位。在协同得分的时空变化规律上,西北五省区协同得分仍保持平稳上升趋势,省际间得分差距明显缩小。

Co-evolution of water-energy-food nexus in arid areas: Take Northwest China as an example

Northwest China is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt and an important gateway for China to open up to Central Asia and Europe. With the strategic support of the "Western Development", Northwest China has gone through four "Five-Year Plans" (2001-2020) planning and development. With the rapid economic and social development, it has also taken advantage of basic conditions such as water resources, energy and food resources. Based on the self-organization theory and the Haken model, this paper, taking Northwest China as an example, constructs a collaborative evaluation index system for the water-energy-food nexus. It examines the internal driving factors of the water-energy-food nexus in stages, and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation of the water-energy-food nexus synergy score. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2010, the sequence parameter of the coordinated development and evolution of the water-energy-food nexus in Northwest China was the water resources subsystem. This shows that the water resources subsystem dominates the development and evolution of the entire system in this stage, while the energy subsystem and the food subsystem are in a subordinate position. During this period, the water-energy-food nexus in the study area was still in an early stage of development and evolution. The development of the entire system relied on the support of a single element, and it had not yet formed a new and orderly structure driven by multiple elements. In terms of the spatial and temporal variations of synergy scores, there is a large gap between the five provinces in the region. The scores of Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu are higher than the average of the region, but the trend of change is relatively stable. The score in Ningxia is lower than the average in the region, and the trend of change is more tortuous. Xinjiang has the lowest synergy score, but its growth is the fastest, and the upward trend is the most obvious. (2) From 2011 to 2018, the sequence parameters of the coordinated development and evolution of the water-energy-food nexus in Northwest China are the water resources subsystem and the energy subsystem. The two together dominate the co-evolution of the water-energy-food nexus. The various elements of the water-energy-food nexus are more closely linked and the system is more stable. However, the food subsystem in this stage is still in a subordinate position. In terms of the temporal and spatial changes, the gap in synergy scores among the five provinces has been significantly reduced. Among them, the scores of Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are still higher than the average of the Northwest, and the upward trend is more obvious than that in the first stage. Ningxia's synergy score gradually approaches the average of the five provinces. Although Xinjiang's synergy score is still the lowest, it has grown rapidly, and the gap with other provinces has narrowed significantly.