长三角经济增长与碳排放异速关系及形成机制

低碳经济是长三角高质量一体化发展的内在要求。针对2000—2017年长三角地区经济增长与碳排放时空关联、异速增长关系及影响因素的研究发现：（1）长三角地区经济增长与碳排放具有正向关联,关联强度总体呈“V”型波动变化。2000—2008年高关联强度区相对集中分布于苏南、苏北及浙中等地区,2009—2017年空间关联强度明显下降,大体呈“南低北高”分布。（2）长三角地区经济增长与碳排放异速变化以经济扩张弱型为主,大部分地区经济增长与碳排放异速关系实现由正转负。（3）地理探测器诊断第二产业比例、第三产业比例、城市化和人口密度是驱动长三角地区经济增长与碳排放异速变动的主要因子。（4）多尺度地理加权回归表明人口密度显著负向影响长三角地区经济增长与碳排放异速变化,投资强度和财政支出强度起到抑制作用,城市化和消费水平表现出先促进后抵消作用,第二产业与第三产业占比及固碳水平则起到先抑制后促进作用。

Analysis of allometric relationship and formation mechanism between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta

Low-carbon economy is the inherent requirement to achieve high-quality integrated development in the Yangtze River Delta. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal correlation, allometric growth relationship, and driving forces between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2017. The findings show that: (1) There exists a positive correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions in the study area, and the overall correlation intensity presents a "V-shaped" fluctuation. From 2000 to 2008, the areas with high correlation intensity were relatively concentrated in Southern Jiangsu, Northern Jiangsu and Central Zhejiang. From 2009 to 2017, the spatial correlation intensity decreased significantly, and generally presented a spatial pattern of "low in the south and high in the north". (2) The allometric variation between economic growth and carbon emissions is dominated by weak economic expansion, and the allometric relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in most areas has turned from positive to negative. (3) The geo-detector diagnoses that the proportions of secondary and tertiary industries, as well as urbanization and population density are the main factors driving the allometric variation between economic growth and carbon emissions. (4) Multi-scale geographical weighted regression shows that the population density has an significantly negative impact on allometric variation between economic growth and carbon emissions, investment intensity and the intensity of fiscal expenditure have an inhibitory effect, urbanization and consumption level show the effect of first promoting and then offsetting, while the proportions of secondary and tertiary industries, and the carbon sequestration ability show the effect of first inhibition and then promotion.