中国化肥资源供需矛盾及调控策略

鉴于中国化肥供需形势不清给产业调控带来不确定性影响,论文分析了化肥资源供需矛盾,并提出了相关调控策略。结果表明,中国化肥供需总量已经接近平衡,氮磷钾化肥的自给率分别达到100%、95%和29%。少部分产品存在缺口,其中氯化钾的自给率为23%,是当前我国惟一紧缺的化肥产品。随着化肥生产向资源产地集中,中国化肥供需时空不平衡有扩大的趋势。部分时间段的供需不平衡异常尖锐,其中10月份至来年3月份全国化肥供应过剩超过900×10⁴t,而部分月份却极端不足,例如7月份两广、东北等地的尿素缺口达200×10⁴t左右,10月份华北地区的磷酸二铵缺口达到100×10⁴t左右,而5、7、8三个月中两广地区的钾肥缺口也超过100×10⁴t。建议国家加强储备工作,储备化肥消费量的15%,其中10%储备在淡季,以减少过剩的压力,而5%储备在旺季,以应对市场供不应求。

The Situation and Managing Strategy of Fertilizer Supply and Consumption in China

The situation of supply and demand of fertilizer was not clear in China which was resulted from the unreasonable policy. This paper analyzed the supply and demand of fertilizer at national, regional and monthly levels. The results showed the total supply would match the total demand of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers currently. The self sufficient rate of N, P₂O₅ and K₂O was 100%,95% and 29% respectively in China in 2005. The self sufficient rate of DAP,NPK and potassium chloride was 78%,81% and 23% respectively. Although the supply of some products could not match the demand currently, it was forecasted to be balanced in the future years according to the rapid development of industry. Therefore, the conflict of fertilizer supply and demand depends not at national level but at space-time level. The unbalanced situation in some regions has been widened in recent years because the fertilizer industry was concentrating in the regions which were abundant in raw materials. For example, a total of 23 provinces can not produce enough fertilizer for their respective farmland demand. The traditional industrial regions in East China have been transferred from export regions to import regions in recent years. The unbalanced supply in these regions always happened in some seasons. For example, the surplus of urea between November to next March was proved to be 9 million tons in the whole country. But in July, 2 million tons shortage of supply happened in Guangdong, Guangxi and other regions. Similar problem happened to other products, such as 1 million tons gap for DAP in North China in October and 1 million tons for MOP in South China in May, July and August. The unbalanced supply in some regions and some seasons resulted in the huge transportation demand and risk for price fluctuation. It is also one of the reasons for quickening development of industry. Therefore, balance the supply and consumption between regions and seasons is a necessary strategy for a sound development of industry and agriculture policy in the next few years.To store the surplus supply in off-season and release them in midseason is a best way. According to the integrated analysis, it was proposed to store 15% of the total demand can realize the goal, of which 10% should be stored in off-season to release the burden of producer and 5% should be stored in midseason to ensure enough supply. The central government should set up a scientific fertilizer storage system to select the sound storage site, time and amount based on the changes of supply and demand situation.