水资源安全的度量:水资源承载力的研究与挑战

水资源承载力是对水资源安全的一个基本度量,研究水资源承载力对于认识和建设水资源安全保障体系具有重要意义。基于水资源承载力的定义和水资源承载力系统关系,论文给出了水资源承载力的度量与计算方法,包括可利用水资源量、水资源需求量的计算,流域水资源承载力平衡指数、水资源承载力分量的测度等。西北干旱区是我国水资源极为短缺的地区,因此,论文就西北干旱区水资源承载力综合研究的一些关键问题,如变化环境下的流域水循环模拟研究、生态需水研究等进行了重点讨论,并认为水资源承载力的进一步研究应加强水文基础与水资源、社会经济学科的综合研究,促进RS、GIS等信息技术和现有模型方法的结合,并重视区域差异研究。

The measurement of water resources security:A study and challenge on water resources carrying capacity

Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)is a basic measurement of water resources security that plays a very important role in recognizing and building water resources security system.This paper focuses on the WRCC's measurement and quantifying method,which include the usable water resources evaluation,water demand calculation from eco-system and socio-eco-nomic development and the indicator of WRCC and its vector index.As a representative of water conflict in the Northwestern part of China,this paper addresses several key issues related to quantifying WRCC in this region,such as water cycle modeling in the changing environment,water demand problem for eco-system etc.It holds that the hydrological basis related to WRCC,integrated study of natural change and social economics,present practical models and RS/GIS technology,as well as regional variability should be emphasized.