河西走廊城市化与水资源利用关系的量化研究

基于1985-2003年的统计数据,分析了河西走廊5市以及三大内陆河流域城市化水平与用水总量、用水效益、人均用水水平的定量关系,建立了它们之间关系的数学模型。结果表明,河西走廊城市化水平与用水总量呈对数增长关系,与用水效益呈线性增长关系,与人均用水水平的定量关系则较为复杂。同时,河西走廊短缺的水资源对城市化进程存在明显的约束作用,而且约束强度在水资源最为紧缺的东部地区表现最为明显;中部地区城市化的较快发展是以水资源的巨大消耗为代价的;而西部的疏勒河流域,则是城市化水平和用水效益相对较高的地区,但也是人均用水量相对较高的地区。因此,建立集约的水资源利用体系,缓解水资源对城市化进程的约束,是河西走廊各地区实施城镇化战略和西部大开发战略所面临的共同任务。

Study on the Quantitative Relationship Between Urbanization and Water Resources Utilization in the Hexi Corridor

Based on the statistical data from the year 1985 to 2003,we analyzed the quantitative relationship between urbanization and total water utilization,water utilization benefits,and per capita water utilization in the Hexi Corridor,including its five districts and three major inland river basins.And the relationship model between them was constructed.Results show that,in the Hexi Corridor,the relationship between urbanization and total water utilization can be simulated by a logarithmic curve.If this condition continues,rapid urbanization in the Hexi Corridor will face up higher water stress,so the development mode of water resources and urbanization at should be adjusted,and the fresh water withdraw should be decreased step by step.The relationship between urbanization and water utilization benefits can be simulated by a linear equation.Where the urbanization and industrialization level is higher,the water utilization benefits are higher.So the Hexi Corridor should accelerate the process of urbanization and industrialization to obtain higher water utilization benefits.The relationship between urbanization and per capita water utilization is complex,but it obviously relates to the total quantity of water resources.We also found that scarce water resources obviously restricted the process of urbanization in the Hexi Corridor.And the water resources constraint intensity is the biggest in the eastern part,where water resources are the scarcest.The process of urbanization is faster in the middle part than in the eastern.However,the middle part consumed much more water resources.The western part has the highest urbanization level and water utilization benefits,but its per capita water utilization is also the highest.Therefore,the Hexi Corridor should construct an intensive water resources utilization system to lessen the water resources constraint on the process of urbanization.It is also an important task to carry out the strategy of urbanization and the great development of west China.