三工河流域油料作物的农户种植意愿影响因素分析——基于Logistic模型和240户农户微观调查数据

论文以新疆三工河流域27个行政村(连队)240户农户的调查数据为基础,通过建立农户种植油料作物意愿和各自变量的Logistic回归计量模型,从家庭特征因素、 资源禀赋因素、 家庭经济因素和其他因素四大方面分析了农户对油料作物种植意愿的影响因素。研究表明:家庭总人口、 对农业技术服务的态度与农户的种植意愿呈正相关关系,且对农业技术服务的态度标准化系数更大,影响更显著;常年从事农业劳动人数、 户主文化水平和地块位置与之呈反相关关系,且户主文化水平的标准化系数更大,影响更显著。但是反映土地投入、 种地收入以及人均收入没有通过检验,不能得出这几个变量与农户种植油料作物意愿之间的关系。文章最后探讨了兵地差异对农户种植意愿的影响及研究展望。

Analysis on Decision-making Mechanism of Farmer Household in Sangong River Watershed on Logistic Model

This paper,based on survey data of 27 administrative villages and 240 households around Sangong River Basin in Xinjiang(the companies),through the establishment of farmers’ willingness to grow oil crops and logistic regression variables and measurement models,analyses influential factors of farmers planting willingness from factors of household characteristics,factors of resource endowments,factors of household economy and other 13 factors in four major oil crops producing areas.Studies have shown that: the total household population,the agricultural technology service attitude and farmers planting willingness are positively correlated,and the attitude of the standardization coefficients of agricultural technology service factor has more significant impact;the annual number of employed in agriculture,education level and block-headed are negatively correlated,and the greater the cultural level of the head of the household’s standardized coefficient,the greater the impact.However,reflection of the land input into the farm family economy,farming income,and per capita income does not pass inspection,it can not gain the relationship between these variables and farmers’ willingness to grow oil crops.Finally,the article discusses the differences of impact on farmers’ willingness between companies and administrative villages.