碳税对于发展非化石能源的作用 ——基于能源-环境-经济模型的分析

为评价实现我国2020年碳排放强度和非化石能源发展目标的经济和环境影响,论文应用基于动态CGE模型的中国能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了不同减排政策下的减排效果及经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收40元/t CO₂碳税,将碳税作为政府收入、 居民收入、 削减影响较大行业的生产税、 以及用于非化石能源投资,2020年所能实现的减排量分别相当于CO₂排放强度在2005年的基础上下降35.87%、 35.80%、 35.07%和40.13%,非化石能源的消费量将占到总消费量的10.99%、 11.00%、 10.75%和15.82%。政策情景下对经济的影响并不是十分显著,GDP的损失不超过0.2%。综合考虑到减排效益和经济影响,将碳税收入用作对非化石能源的投资,不仅有利于促进我国实现2020年碳排放强度目标,而且对于实现非化石能源发展目标也发挥着重要的作用。

The Impact of Carbon Tax on Non-Fossil Energy Development——Based on the Analysis of Energy-Environment-Economic Model

This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental effects of fulfilling China’s unilateral international climate policy and non-fossil fuel pledges for 2020.A Chinese Energy-Environment-Economic Model based on CGE model with detailed electricity technologies for China is used to simulate four different mitigation policies.The results show that with 40 yuan/tCO2 of carbon tax rate and use the carbon tax revenues as government income,household income,reduce output tax rate of most impacted sectors by carbon tax,and as the investment of non-fossil energy,can reduce CO2 emission intensity by 35.87%,35.80%,35.07% and 40.13% in 2020 compared to 2005,as well as non-fossil energy consumption will account for 10.99%,11.00%,10.75% and 15.82% of the total energy consumption,respectively.The mitigation costs under policy scenarios compared to baseline are rather modest and stay below 0.2% of GDP.If the tax revenue is used to alleviate output tax of the most affected industrial sectors,GDP may even increase.This paper suggests that the policy of combining carbon tax with investing non-fossil energy is a good policy choice,which can not only promote the achievement of carbon intensity target in 2020,but also provide funds for non-fossil energy development to stimulate the realization of the non-fossil fuel consumption goal.In addition,taking into account the co-benefits of lower fossil-fuel use suggests that for most mitigation policies considered these benefits outweigh any losses in GDP.Hence,China may benefit from unilateral climate policy in the short run,independent of possible long-term effects on global warming.