基于扰沌模型的青藏高原放牧社会—生态系统分析

青藏高原的放牧系统具有重要的生态和生计意义,但目前正受到气候变化和人为干扰的双重威胁。为寻找改善现状的着力点,有必要探究青藏高原放牧系统的现状与演变趋势。以青藏高原东北部的共和县为例,基于历史统计数据、地方志与文献资料,在社会—生态系统的视角下,运用描述系统演变的扰沌模型,分析共和县放牧社会—生态系统的历史变迁、现状以及未来发展趋势。其中与经济相关的家庭生计—市场子系统目前处于平稳积累资源阶段,与生态相关的草—畜子系统处于释放阶段的早期,社会子系统处于偏离正常轨迹的重组阶段。草—畜子系统的情况恶化并将为更大时空尺度的社会子系统带来负面影响。未来要注意防止家庭畜牧生产与畜牧业市场的过度连接,维护畜牧产业链上的获益公平,提升牧民收入来源多样化程度;注重草地治理,提升基层监理队伍的数量和质量,鼓励合作社优化畜群结构从而与草地匹配,制定合理的政策帮助牧民社会适应外来变化。

Analysis of a pastoral social-ecological system in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on Panarchy

Grazing systems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are of great ecological and livelihood importance. However, they are now threatened by both climate change and human interference. In order to improve the situation, it is necessary to explore the current status and developing trend of the grazing systems on the plateau. Based on historical statistics, local chronicles and existing literatures, this paper analyzes the historical changes, current situation and future development trend of the pastoral system of Gonghe county from the perspective of the social-ecological system, using Panarchy as the conceptual model. The family livelihood-market subsystem is currently in the stage of steady accumulation of resources, the pasture-livestock subsystem is in the early stage of release, and the social subsystem is in the reorganization stage deviating from the normal trajectory. The deterioration of the pasture-livestock subsystem will have a negative impact on the social subsystems at larger spatial and temporal scales. In the future, more efforts should be made to prevent over-connections between family livestock production and animal husbandry market, maintain equity of benefits in the livestock industry chain, increase the diversification of herders' sources of income, focus on grassland governance, enhance the quantity and quality of grass-roots supervisory teams, encourage cooperatives to optimize herd structure to match grassland, and formulate rational policies to help herders' societies adapt to external changes.