秦岭生态屏障产水服务时空演变特征及驱动要素

秦岭是我国重要的“中央水塔”,是南水北调的重要水源地。基于InVEST模型评估2000—2018年秦岭地区产水服务,分析其时空演变特征,利用相关性分析和地理加权回归方法（GWR）探究不同因素对秦岭地区产水服务变化的影响。结果表明：秦岭地区多年平均产水量为235.16 mm,19年间产水量呈现微弱下降趋势,产水量在空间上表现为由南部向北减少的特点。秦岭地区产水量波动程度和变化趋势都较弱,产水服务整体比较稳定。各因素对产水量的影响具有明显的空间异质性,降水主导的范围最大（33.18%）,且集中分布于产水量较多的秦岭南侧。其次为NPP（17.90%）和实际蒸散量（16.71%）,两者在中北部地区是主要影响因素。研究结果对促进区域生态安全和可持续发展具有一定的指导意义。

Spatio-temporal variation of water yield and its driving factors in Qinling Mountains barrier region

The Qinling Mountains region, an important water conservation region and ecological function support region, as well as a major ecological barrier in China, plays a critical role in conserving water resources. Based on the data of meteorology and land use, this paper estimates the water yield service in the Qinling region based on InVEST model, and uses spatio-temporal analysis method and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to discuss the variation characteristics and driving factors of water-producing services in the study region from 2000 to 2018. The results show that the average annual water yield in Qinling is 235.16 mm, showing a weak downward trend in 2019 with the highest value (470.17 mm) in 2003 and the lowest (75.57 mm) in 2007. The spatial distribution of water yield gradually decreased from the south to the north with obvious "stepped" distribution characteristics. The change trend of water yield has an insignificant increase and decrease (95.99%), and a small number of regions with a significant increase are formed at higher altitude in the Central and Western Qinling region. There are obvious spatial differences in the fluctuation of water yield in the region, which present a trend of "higher in the north than in the south, mainly with medium and low fluctuation and strong fluctuation in the northwest". The influence of various factors on water production services has obvious spatial heterogeneity. The study region is dominated by precipitation (33.18%), which is concentrated in the southern part of Qinling Mountains with more water production, followed by NPP (17.90%) and actual evapotranspiration (16.71%), which are the main influencing factors in the Central and Northern Qinling Mountains. The research results provide theoretical and technical support for the safety and sustainable utilization of water resources in the Qinling region.